Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds the strongest implied probability in the Dublin Central by-election market due to favorable positioning for transfers under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A recent Irish Times/TG4 poll conducted May 7–12 showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first preferences at 21 percent to Ennis’s 18 percent, with independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent. Ennis has drawn strong second-preference support in the left-leaning constituency vacated by Paschal Donohoe, bolstered by local profile as a North Strand councillor and endorsements from party colleague Gary Gannon. With the vote set for May 22, canvassing on housing and cost-of-living issues continues to shape late momentum among the field of 14 candidates.