Recent polling in Dublin Central shows Sinn Féin councillor Janice Boylan holding a narrow first-preference lead at 21 percent ahead of Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis on 18 percent, with independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent. Trader consensus nevertheless prices Ennis as the clear favorite to win the May 22 by-election because Ireland’s single transferable vote system rewards candidates who attract broad second and subsequent preferences from eliminated rivals. Ennis currently records the highest share of second preferences in the same survey, positioning him to benefit from transfers once lower-polling candidates drop out. The seat became vacant after Paschal Donohoe’s departure, and with fourteen candidates contesting, the final outcome is expected to hinge on how preferences flow in later counts rather than first-preference totals alone.