Nayib Bukele holds a commanding 96.4% implied probability in the El Salvador presidential election market ahead of the February 28, 2027 vote, driven by his party's supermajority in the Legislative Assembly and 2025 constitutional reforms that enabled indefinite re-election, extended terms to six years, advanced the election date, and shifted to first-past-the-post. Traders price in his sustained high approval ratings, rooted in the ongoing state of emergency and gang crackdown that sharply reduced homicides since 2022. Registered opposition candidates from ARENA and FMLN, along with minor figures, register below 2% amid limited polling visibility. Late shifts remain possible if health events, economic pressures, or major policy reversals emerge before candidate registration closes in November 2026, though current legislative and public support structures limit near-term volatility.