Recent rebounds in SpaceX and Tesla shares, fueled by institutional stake disclosures from Nvidia, BlackRock and others plus analyst optimism on AI and autonomous tech pipelines, have lifted Musk’s net worth back toward the $850–900 billion range as of late August. With roughly 80% tied to the post-IPO rocket company and 16% in the electric-vehicle maker, the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities around $600–900 billion reflect short-term volatility in those equities amid broader tech-sector swings and macroeconomic signals. Key swing factors over the final weeks include SpaceX’s trading momentum ahead of any lockup expirations, Tesla’s delivery trends and robotaxi or Optimus updates, and overall artificial-intelligence investment sentiment that could push the figure above or below the current consensus range by September 30.