Recent U.S. real GDP data and consensus forecasts anchor trader sentiment for 2026 growth, with the 1.5–2.0% band holding a narrow lead at 43.3%. First-quarter 2026 expansion rebounded to a 2.0% annualized rate from 0.5% in late 2025, driven by surging business investment in AI equipment and a post-shutdown recovery in government spending. This supports the 35% probability on outcomes above 2.5%, yet tariff-related import costs and slower consumer spending cap upside. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity gains compete with labor-force constraints from immigration policy, keeping the 2.0–2.5% and sub-2% ranges closely contested ahead of second-quarter data and potential FOMC signals on monetary policy.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
<0.5% 19.4%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
19%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
37%
2.0–2.5%
22%
>2.5%
33%
<0.5% 19.4%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 Vol.
19%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 Vol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 Vol.
37%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 Vol.
22%
>2.5%
$4,088 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. real GDP data and consensus forecasts anchor trader sentiment for 2026 growth, with the 1.5–2.0% band holding a narrow lead at 43.3%. First-quarter 2026 expansion rebounded to a 2.0% annualized rate from 0.5% in late 2025, driven by surging business investment in AI equipment and a post-shutdown recovery in government spending. This supports the 35% probability on outcomes above 2.5%, yet tariff-related import costs and slower consumer spending cap upside. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity gains compete with labor-force constraints from immigration policy, keeping the 2.0–2.5% and sub-2% ranges closely contested ahead of second-quarter data and potential FOMC signals on monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$28,267শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. real GDP data and consensus forecasts anchor trader sentiment for 2026 growth, with the 1.5–2.0% band holding a narrow lead at 43.3%. First-quarter 2026 expansion rebounded to a 2.0% annualized rate from 0.5% in late 2025, driven by surging business investment in AI equipment and a post-shutdown recovery in government spending. This supports the 35% probability on outcomes above 2.5%, yet tariff-related import costs and slower consumer spending cap upside. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity gains compete with labor-force constraints from immigration policy, keeping the 2.0–2.5% and sub-2% ranges closely contested ahead of second-quarter data and potential FOMC signals on monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$28,267শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. real GDP data and consensus forecasts anchor trader sentiment for 2026 growth, with the 1.5–2.0% band holding a narrow lead at 43.3%. First-quarter 2026 expansion rebounded to a 2.0% annualized rate from 0.5% in late 2025, driven by surging business investment in AI equipment and a post-shutdown recovery in government spending. This supports the 35% probability on outcomes above 2.5%, yet tariff-related import costs and slower consumer spending cap upside. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity gains compete with labor-force constraints from immigration policy, keeping the 2.0–2.5% and sub-2% ranges closely contested ahead of second-quarter data and potential FOMC signals on monetary policy.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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