Atlanta Fed GDPNow's steady 3.7% Q2 2026 nowcast, combined with Q1 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% but missing 2.3% consensus—anchors trader sentiment favoring >2.5% full-year expansion at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. Persistent inflation, with April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year (up from March's 3.3%), and softening labor markets evidenced by just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, elevate <0.5% recession risks to 28%. FOMC's April 29 rate hold (8-4 split) signals caution versus March SEP's 2.4% GDP median; upcoming May CPI on June 10 could sway rate path expectations.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 44%
<0.5% 21.0%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 15%
$28,074 Vol.
$28,074 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
21%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
15%
>2.5%
44%
>2.5% 44%
<0.5% 21.0%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 15%
$28,074 Vol.
$28,074 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 Vol.
21%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 Vol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 Vol.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,504 Vol.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,818 Vol.
15%
>2.5%
$4,061 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's steady 3.7% Q2 2026 nowcast, combined with Q1 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% but missing 2.3% consensus—anchors trader sentiment favoring >2.5% full-year expansion at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. Persistent inflation, with April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year (up from March's 3.3%), and softening labor markets evidenced by just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, elevate <0.5% recession risks to 28%. FOMC's April 29 rate hold (8-4 split) signals caution versus March SEP's 2.4% GDP median; upcoming May CPI on June 10 could sway rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$28,074শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Atlanta Fed GDPNow's steady 3.7% Q2 2026 nowcast, combined with Q1 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% but missing 2.3% consensus—anchors trader sentiment favoring >2.5% full-year expansion at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. Persistent inflation, with April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year (up from March's 3.3%), and softening labor markets evidenced by just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, elevate <0.5% recession risks to 28%. FOMC's April 29 rate hold (8-4 split) signals caution versus March SEP's 2.4% GDP median; upcoming May CPI on June 10 could sway rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$28,074শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed GDPNow's steady 3.7% Q2 2026 nowcast, combined with Q1 real GDP growth of 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% but missing 2.3% consensus—anchors trader sentiment favoring >2.5% full-year expansion at 43% implied probability on Polymarket. Persistent inflation, with April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year (up from March's 3.3%), and softening labor markets evidenced by just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, elevate <0.5% recession risks to 28%. FOMC's April 29 rate hold (8-4 split) signals caution versus March SEP's 2.4% GDP median; upcoming May CPI on June 10 could sway rate path expectations.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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