Robust third-quarter GDP growth, tracking near 3.1% annualized amid strong consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpins the near-even split between 2.0–2.5% and above-2.5% outcomes for full-year 2026. Recent BEA data showed Q2 expansion at 2.2%, while Atlanta Fed nowcasts and private forecasts from the OECD, ABA, and others cluster around 2.2–2.7% for the year, reflecting resilient domestic demand offset by sticky inflation near 3.4–3.6% and potential additional Fed rate hikes. Traders weigh upside from capital spending against risks of softer Q4 consumption or labor-market cooling that could cap the annual figure near the 2.3% FOMC median projection. Upcoming Q3 final estimates and October–December data releases remain the key swing factors.