Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong first-half 2026 GDP prints and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. BEA data showed 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-linked capital investment, and supportive fiscal measures that offset tariff and energy-related drags. Major projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private banks cluster between 2.0% and 2.5% for 2026 overall, reflecting above-trend momentum and a low recession probability. Tail risks remain limited but include an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sharp energy-price spike, or an unexpected tightening of financial conditions that could tip the second-half trajectory sharply lower.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা