Robust US economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability that 2026 GDP growth will avoid contraction. Second-quarter real GDP expanded 2.2% annualized, with the Atlanta Fed's Q3 nowcast near 5% and recent third-quarter readings around 3.1%, fueled by resilient consumer spending, strong business fixed investment in AI infrastructure, and solid exports. Major institutions including the Federal Reserve project 2.2–2.6% full-year growth, reflecting ongoing productivity gains and corporate capex that have offset higher energy costs and above-target inflation. While tail risks such as sharper geopolitical energy shocks, aggressive monetary tightening, or sudden labor-market deterioration could still trigger a downturn, current indicators and forward estimates leave little room for negative annual growth.