Trader consensus against a UK recession in 2026, priced at an 84.5% implied probability for “No,” rests on consensus GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.4% growth from the IMF, OECD, and OBR alongside recent positive momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026 and 0.7% three-month growth through April. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, with inflation at 2.6% and unemployment near 4.9%, supports steady consumption without signaling contraction, while expected gradual easing toward neutral reinforces the outlook. Downside risks center on prolonged Middle East energy shocks via the Strait of Hormuz, though central scenarios assume these remain contained. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the September Monetary Policy Report, which could shift rate-path expectations and growth revisions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড16% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
16% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.Trader consensus against a UK recession in 2026, priced at an 84.5% implied probability for “No,” rests on consensus GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.4% growth from the IMF, OECD, and OBR alongside recent positive momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026 and 0.7% three-month growth through April. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, with inflation at 2.6% and unemployment near 4.9%, supports steady consumption without signaling contraction, while expected gradual easing toward neutral reinforces the outlook. Downside risks center on prolonged Middle East energy shocks via the Strait of Hormuz, though central scenarios assume these remain contained. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the September Monetary Policy Report, which could shift rate-path expectations and growth revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
ভলিউম
$8,335শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.Trader consensus against a UK recession in 2026, priced at an 84.5% implied probability for “No,” rests on consensus GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.4% growth from the IMF, OECD, and OBR alongside recent positive momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026 and 0.7% three-month growth through April. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, with inflation at 2.6% and unemployment near 4.9%, supports steady consumption without signaling contraction, while expected gradual easing toward neutral reinforces the outlook. Downside risks center on prolonged Middle East energy shocks via the Strait of Hormuz, though central scenarios assume these remain contained. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the September Monetary Policy Report, which could shift rate-path expectations and growth revisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters. Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the GDP first quarterly estimate, UK for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK release for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Office for National Statistics, specifically its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" and "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK" releases for the relevant quarters.
ভলিউম
$8,335শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus against a UK recession in 2026, priced at an 84.5% implied probability for “No,” rests on consensus GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.4% growth from the IMF, OECD, and OBR alongside recent positive momentum, including 0.6% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026 and 0.7% three-month growth through April. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate, with inflation at 2.6% and unemployment near 4.9%, supports steady consumption without signaling contraction, while expected gradual easing toward neutral reinforces the outlook. Downside risks center on prolonged Middle East energy shocks via the Strait of Hormuz, though central scenarios assume these remain contained. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release and the September Monetary Policy Report, which could shift rate-path expectations and growth revisions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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