Recent October CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly rise, exceeding consensus forecasts of 0.3%, with core prices advancing 0.3% for the third straight month amid shelter and food cost pressures. No official year-over-year figure was published due to the prior year's government shutdown disrupting the base comparison, leading traders to anchor heavily on September's 3.7% annual rate amid stable underlying trends. This has produced 97% implied probability for 3.7% as the resolution outcome. Key upcoming catalysts include the December 10 CPI release and any post-shutdown methodological clarifications that could alter the effective annual reading.