Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth odds cluster tightly around the 1.5-2.5% range because traders price in a post-World Cup fade after the economy's 1.4-1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2, offset by resilient exports and nearshoring flows. Persistent weakness in fixed investment, driven by USMCA review uncertainty and subdued public spending, continues to weigh on domestic demand, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate and cooling but above-target inflation near 3.3% support only modest expansion. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1.0-2.0%, aligning with private consensus near 1.1-1.2% and underscoring downside risks from trade frictions. The closely matched probabilities reflect balanced but uncertain data ahead of the preliminary Q3 release.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড1.5-2.0% 32%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 9.6%
$25,687 Vol.
$25,687 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
10%
1.5-2.0%
32%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
23%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 32%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 9.6%
$25,687 Vol.
$25,687 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$469 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,418 Vol.
10%
1.5-2.0%
$8,528 Vol.
32%
2.0-2.5%
$10,915 Vol.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 Vol.
23%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Vol.
1%
3.5%+
$438 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth odds cluster tightly around the 1.5-2.5% range because traders price in a post-World Cup fade after the economy's 1.4-1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2, offset by resilient exports and nearshoring flows. Persistent weakness in fixed investment, driven by USMCA review uncertainty and subdued public spending, continues to weigh on domestic demand, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate and cooling but above-target inflation near 3.3% support only modest expansion. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1.0-2.0%, aligning with private consensus near 1.1-1.2% and underscoring downside risks from trade frictions. The closely matched probabilities reflect balanced but uncertain data ahead of the preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$25,687শেষ তারিখ
Oct 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth odds cluster tightly around the 1.5-2.5% range because traders price in a post-World Cup fade after the economy's 1.4-1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2, offset by resilient exports and nearshoring flows. Persistent weakness in fixed investment, driven by USMCA review uncertainty and subdued public spending, continues to weigh on domestic demand, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate and cooling but above-target inflation near 3.3% support only modest expansion. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1.0-2.0%, aligning with private consensus near 1.1-1.2% and underscoring downside risks from trade frictions. The closely matched probabilities reflect balanced but uncertain data ahead of the preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$25,687শেষ তারিখ
Oct 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth odds cluster tightly around the 1.5-2.5% range because traders price in a post-World Cup fade after the economy's 1.4-1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2, offset by resilient exports and nearshoring flows. Persistent weakness in fixed investment, driven by USMCA review uncertainty and subdued public spending, continues to weigh on domestic demand, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate and cooling but above-target inflation near 3.3% support only modest expansion. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to 1.0-2.0%, aligning with private consensus near 1.1-1.2% and underscoring downside risks from trade frictions. The closely matched probabilities reflect balanced but uncertain data ahead of the preliminary Q3 release.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা