Recent energy price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 euro area GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, and European Commission now centering projections around 0.8-1.1%. This has solidified trader consensus around the 0-1.0% outcome at 80.8% implied probability. Subdued quarterly momentum, including a modest 0.1% q/q expansion in Q1, combined with elevated inflation near 3% and cautious ECB policy, continues to weigh on domestic demand and confidence. Resilient labor markets and German fiscal support provide some offset, yet the market-implied odds align closely with the latest consensus range while leaving room for upside if geopolitical tensions ease materially before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড0-1.0% 80.5%
1.0-2.0% 16%
4.0-5.0% 3.6%
<0% 2.6%
$30,380 Vol.
$30,380 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
3%
0-1.0%
81%
1.0-2.0%
16%
2.0-3.0%
1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1.0% 80.5%
1.0-2.0% 16%
4.0-5.0% 3.6%
<0% 2.6%
$30,380 Vol.
$30,380 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$1,672 Vol.
3%
0-1.0%
$11,512 Vol.
81%
1.0-2.0%
$7,156 Vol.
16%
2.0-3.0%
$1,180 Vol.
1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,203 Vol.
4%
5.0-6.0%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,648 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 euro area GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, and European Commission now centering projections around 0.8-1.1%. This has solidified trader consensus around the 0-1.0% outcome at 80.8% implied probability. Subdued quarterly momentum, including a modest 0.1% q/q expansion in Q1, combined with elevated inflation near 3% and cautious ECB policy, continues to weigh on domestic demand and confidence. Resilient labor markets and German fiscal support provide some offset, yet the market-implied odds align closely with the latest consensus range while leaving room for upside if geopolitical tensions ease materially before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ভলিউম
$30,380শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 euro area GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, and European Commission now centering projections around 0.8-1.1%. This has solidified trader consensus around the 0-1.0% outcome at 80.8% implied probability. Subdued quarterly momentum, including a modest 0.1% q/q expansion in Q1, combined with elevated inflation near 3% and cautious ECB policy, continues to weigh on domestic demand and confidence. Resilient labor markets and German fiscal support provide some offset, yet the market-implied odds align closely with the latest consensus range while leaving room for upside if geopolitical tensions ease materially before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$30,380শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict have prompted widespread downward revisions to 2026 euro area GDP forecasts, with institutions including the ECB, OECD, and European Commission now centering projections around 0.8-1.1%. This has solidified trader consensus around the 0-1.0% outcome at 80.8% implied probability. Subdued quarterly momentum, including a modest 0.1% q/q expansion in Q1, combined with elevated inflation near 3% and cautious ECB policy, continues to weigh on domestic demand and confidence. Resilient labor markets and German fiscal support provide some offset, yet the market-implied odds align closely with the latest consensus range while leaving room for upside if geopolitical tensions ease materially before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা