Recent US CPI readings have shown inflation accelerating through mid-2026, with the year-over-year rate reaching 4.2% in May before easing to 3.7% in September amid higher energy prices and persistent shelter costs that account for over half of core inflation. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections placed median PCE inflation at 3.7% for the year, while the central bank held the federal funds rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range at its October meeting, citing elevated price pressures and awaiting further data. Traders are monitoring the October CPI release scheduled for November 10, along with subsequent monthly prints through year-end, as these will determine the highest 12-month rate observed in 2026. Market-implied odds reflect near-certainty that inflation exceeded 4% at some point, with limited probability priced for levels above 4.5%, underscoring the role of energy volatility and sticky services components in shaping the year’s peak.