Canada’s monthly GDP data for August 2026, scheduled for official release on October 30, carries an advance estimate of 0.2% month-over-month growth from Statistics Canada, following a flat reading in July after a revised 0.4% gain in June. The preliminary figure reflects gains in mining and quarrying alongside retail trade that outweighed declines in oil and gas extraction, consistent with broader third-quarter tracking around 2% annualized amid moderating momentum from the robust 0.8% quarterly expansion in Q2. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2–0.3% range, reflecting trader alignment with the flash data while incorporating scope for revisions once full survey and administrative inputs are incorporated. Lingering U.S. tariff developments since late August and Bank of Canada commentary on potential growth impacts introduce modest downside risks for later months, though they have not yet materially altered the near-term monthly path.