Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and elevated humidity from a lingering low-pressure system and enhanced southwest monsoon flow are capping daytime heating in Taipei, keeping the highest temperature on August 25 most likely near 30–31 °C. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble forecasts show a 26–33 °C range, with widespread afternoon thunderstorms and thick stratiform clouds limiting insolation and suppressing peak values relative to the late-August climatological mean of ~32 °C. Model consensus favors modest afternoon recovery only if breaks in the overcast occur, while any delay in convective initiation could allow brief excursions to 32 °C. The next CWA update and refreshed global model runs will provide the key signal for traders assessing whether the distribution shifts toward the current 30 °C or 31 °C mode.