**The confirmed count of 109 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for the 100–129 bin.** This total sits near the long-term July average of roughly 119, driven by typical summer patterns with activity concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the jet stream position, plus limited tropical influences. Preliminary reports reached about 128, including a significant outbreak on July 21 that produced dozens of touchdowns, yet National Weather Service surveys ultimately confirmed fewer events after damage assessments and EF-scale ratings. Official NOAA/SPC data show a mix of mostly weak (EF0–EF1) tornadoes with isolated stronger ones, consistent with climatology. Realistic challenges to this range would require substantial late confirmations pushing the verified total above 129 or major downward revisions, though both appear unlikely given completed surveys by mid-August.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
100–129 97.2%
130–159 4.3%
220–249 2.1%
160–189 2.1%
$3,945 Vol.
$3,945 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
2%
100–129
97%
130–159
14%
160–189
2%
190–219
2%
220–249
2%
250–279
1%
280–310
2%
310+
2%
100–129 97.2%
130–159 4.3%
220–249 2.1%
160–189 2.1%
$3,945 Vol.
$3,945 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$810 Vol.
2%
100–129
$675 Vol.
97%
130–159
$290 Vol.
14%
160–189
$356 Vol.
2%
190–219
$320 Vol.
2%
220–249
$303 Vol.
2%
250–279
$426 Vol.
1%
280–310
$423 Vol.
2%
310+
$342 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**The confirmed count of 109 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for the 100–129 bin.** This total sits near the long-term July average of roughly 119, driven by typical summer patterns with activity concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the jet stream position, plus limited tropical influences. Preliminary reports reached about 128, including a significant outbreak on July 21 that produced dozens of touchdowns, yet National Weather Service surveys ultimately confirmed fewer events after damage assessments and EF-scale ratings. Official NOAA/SPC data show a mix of mostly weak (EF0–EF1) tornadoes with isolated stronger ones, consistent with climatology.
Realistic challenges to this range would require substantial late confirmations pushing the verified total above 129 or major downward revisions, though both appear unlikely given completed surveys by mid-August.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,945শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**The confirmed count of 109 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for the 100–129 bin.** This total sits near the long-term July average of roughly 119, driven by typical summer patterns with activity concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the jet stream position, plus limited tropical influences. Preliminary reports reached about 128, including a significant outbreak on July 21 that produced dozens of touchdowns, yet National Weather Service surveys ultimately confirmed fewer events after damage assessments and EF-scale ratings. Official NOAA/SPC data show a mix of mostly weak (EF0–EF1) tornadoes with isolated stronger ones, consistent with climatology.
Realistic challenges to this range would require substantial late confirmations pushing the verified total above 129 or major downward revisions, though both appear unlikely given completed surveys by mid-August.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ভলিউম
$3,945শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The confirmed count of 109 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability for the 100–129 bin.** This total sits near the long-term July average of roughly 119, driven by typical summer patterns with activity concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast along the jet stream position, plus limited tropical influences. Preliminary reports reached about 128, including a significant outbreak on July 21 that produced dozens of touchdowns, yet National Weather Service surveys ultimately confirmed fewer events after damage assessments and EF-scale ratings. Official NOAA/SPC data show a mix of mostly weak (EF0–EF1) tornadoes with isolated stronger ones, consistent with climatology. Realistic challenges to this range would require substantial late confirmations pushing the verified total above 129 or major downward revisions, though both appear unlikely given completed surveys by mid-August.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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