**Above-average Northwest Pacific activity in 2026, combined with an early surge of landfalls, underpins the market's emphasis on 6–8+ tropical cyclones reaching China.** Official forecasts from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal outlooks (e.g., TSR) project 24–29 named storms overall, exceeding the long-term average of ~22–24.5, with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China versus a typical 7–8. El Niño conditions favor tracks steering toward eastern and southern China rather than recurving northeastward. By mid-August 2026, at least four landfalls have already occurred (Maysak in Hainan on July 3, Bavi in Zhejiang in July, Noul in Guangdong on July 26, and Dolphin in Zhejiang on August 9), with Dolphin noted as the strongest so far. The peak months of August–September remain ahead, and recent model consensus plus active genesis (16+ named storms by early August) support continued elevated risk. Historical analogs and steering patterns tied to current ocean temperatures reinforce the potential for additional impacts, particularly along the southern and eastern coasts. These factors position 6–8+ as the dominant trader consensus, with the market-implied probabilities reflecting both the season’s strong start and the remaining window for further systems. New forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and NHC-equivalent agencies in the coming weeks will provide key data points for refinement.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
5 39%
7 28%
8 26%
6 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
21%
5
26%
6
26%
7
22%
8
26%
Greater than 8
39%
5 39%
7 28%
8 26%
6 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$299 Vol.
21%
5
$145 Vol.
26%
6
$399 Vol.
26%
7
$245 Vol.
22%
8
$90 Vol.
26%
Greater than 8
$169 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Above-average Northwest Pacific activity in 2026, combined with an early surge of landfalls, underpins the market's emphasis on 6–8+ tropical cyclones reaching China.** Official forecasts from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal outlooks (e.g., TSR) project 24–29 named storms overall, exceeding the long-term average of ~22–24.5, with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China versus a typical 7–8. El Niño conditions favor tracks steering toward eastern and southern China rather than recurving northeastward.
By mid-August 2026, at least four landfalls have already occurred (Maysak in Hainan on July 3, Bavi in Zhejiang in July, Noul in Guangdong on July 26, and Dolphin in Zhejiang on August 9), with Dolphin noted as the strongest so far. The peak months of August–September remain ahead, and recent model consensus plus active genesis (16+ named storms by early August) support continued elevated risk. Historical analogs and steering patterns tied to current ocean temperatures reinforce the potential for additional impacts, particularly along the southern and eastern coasts.
These factors position 6–8+ as the dominant trader consensus, with the market-implied probabilities reflecting both the season’s strong start and the remaining window for further systems. New forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and NHC-equivalent agencies in the coming weeks will provide key data points for refinement.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,347শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Above-average Northwest Pacific activity in 2026, combined with an early surge of landfalls, underpins the market's emphasis on 6–8+ tropical cyclones reaching China.** Official forecasts from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal outlooks (e.g., TSR) project 24–29 named storms overall, exceeding the long-term average of ~22–24.5, with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China versus a typical 7–8. El Niño conditions favor tracks steering toward eastern and southern China rather than recurving northeastward.
By mid-August 2026, at least four landfalls have already occurred (Maysak in Hainan on July 3, Bavi in Zhejiang in July, Noul in Guangdong on July 26, and Dolphin in Zhejiang on August 9), with Dolphin noted as the strongest so far. The peak months of August–September remain ahead, and recent model consensus plus active genesis (16+ named storms by early August) support continued elevated risk. Historical analogs and steering patterns tied to current ocean temperatures reinforce the potential for additional impacts, particularly along the southern and eastern coasts.
These factors position 6–8+ as the dominant trader consensus, with the market-implied probabilities reflecting both the season’s strong start and the remaining window for further systems. New forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and NHC-equivalent agencies in the coming weeks will provide key data points for refinement.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ভলিউম
$1,347শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Above-average Northwest Pacific activity in 2026, combined with an early surge of landfalls, underpins the market's emphasis on 6–8+ tropical cyclones reaching China.** Official forecasts from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal outlooks (e.g., TSR) project 24–29 named storms overall, exceeding the long-term average of ~22–24.5, with 7–9 expected to make landfall in China versus a typical 7–8. El Niño conditions favor tracks steering toward eastern and southern China rather than recurving northeastward. By mid-August 2026, at least four landfalls have already occurred (Maysak in Hainan on July 3, Bavi in Zhejiang in July, Noul in Guangdong on July 26, and Dolphin in Zhejiang on August 9), with Dolphin noted as the strongest so far. The peak months of August–September remain ahead, and recent model consensus plus active genesis (16+ named storms by early August) support continued elevated risk. Historical analogs and steering patterns tied to current ocean temperatures reinforce the potential for additional impacts, particularly along the southern and eastern coasts. These factors position 6–8+ as the dominant trader consensus, with the market-implied probabilities reflecting both the season’s strong start and the remaining window for further systems. New forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and NHC-equivalent agencies in the coming weeks will provide key data points for refinement.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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