IBM’s established pattern of surpassing analyst estimates in most recent quarters underpins the 82.5% market-implied probability of beating consensus for its October 21 Q3 2026 release, even after the second-quarter miss on revenue and EPS. Traders are focusing on expected contributions from software and consulting segments amid ongoing AI demand, with consensus targeting roughly $16.8 billion in revenue and $2.8–$2.9 adjusted EPS. Recent challenges, including slower organic software growth and a lowered full-year constant-currency revenue outlook to 4–5%, have tempered optimism but appear already reflected in pricing. The proximity to the earnings date and IBM’s historical beat rate of around 79% further shape current trader consensus around these levels.