**Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain the central driver, with the fate of Iran’s roughly 970 pounds of 60% enriched uranium stockpile as a core sticking point.** US officials announced in late May 2026 that Tehran had agreed in principle to surrender or dispose of the material under a broader framework addressing sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, following prior strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian officials, however, immediately rejected claims of any such commitment, citing a deadlock and Supreme Leader directives against exporting the stockpile. Talks have continued without resolution on verification, dilution, or transfer terms, leaving the issue unresolved as of mid-June. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether Iran will issue a public agreement by the June 30, 2026 deadline, with recent reporting emphasizing persistent gaps between US demands and Iranian positions on enrichment controls and IAEA access.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
June 30 jumps to 12%6%
Al Arabiya reported that Iran had agreed to move part of the stockpile to China, a development that caused a modest rise in the June‑30 contract before a subsequent drop.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile to third country, likely China
December 31 drops to 36%5%
Reports indicated Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing nuclear negotiations with the US. This partial concession suggested progress but left details unresolved, keeping market confidence low for near-term uranium surrender.
Iran agrees to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third state
June 30 rises to 10%3%
Reports emerged that Iran was willing to transfer part of its stockpile to a third country (likely China). The news gave a modest lift to the “June 30” market, which rose from 7 % to a brief 10 % before settling back.
Iran signals willingness to transfer part of uranium stockpile to third country
June 30 jumps to 19%9%
Reports that Iran was willing to transfer a portion of the stockpile to a third country briefly lifted the June‑30 “Yes” odds before the market slid again later in the week.
IAEA reports inability to verify Iran's enriched uranium stockpile after war
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported it could not verify the size, location, or status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile due to lack of access to nuclear sites damaged in the 2025-2026 conflict, raising concerns about transparency and compliance.
Market prices decline amid uncertainty over formal uranium surrender deal
December 31 dips to 38%4%
Despite earlier optimism, market prices declined in early June as details on enforcement and formal agreement remained unclear, causing doubts about Iran's uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran does not surrender uranium by end of June
June 30 drops to 9%12%
Trump warned that if no agreement was reached by the end of his China trip, the United States could resume military action. The renewed threat further eroded confidence, pushing the Yes probability for the June‑30 contract down to a historic low of 9 % by June 2.
Iran pushes for limited interim deal avoiding major uranium concessions
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Reports indicated Iran sought a limited interim agreement with the US to ease economic pressure without major concessions on its enriched uranium stockpile, causing renewed doubts about uranium surrender by mid-2026.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
June 30 plunges to 6%23%
In early June 2026, reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles abroad. This directive reinforced skepticism about Iran’s willingness to surrender uranium, causing market prices for near-term surrender dates to decline further.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran’s enriched uranium by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 12%21%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US would face in securing Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, causing market skepticism and a sharp drop in optimism for the April 30 deadline and near-term surrender dates.
Market skepticism persists despite Iran's uranium surrender agreement
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Despite Iran's reported agreement to surrender its uranium stockpile, market prices declined sharply by early June, reflecting ongoing skepticism about the deal's finalization and implementation amid unresolved details and Iran's historical resistance.
President Trump publicly demands Iran surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
On May 31, 2026, President Trump publicly reiterated demands that Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and emphasizing the importance of dismantling Iran's atomic capabilities. His statements contributed to market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's prospects.
Iran reaffirms enriched uranium not for transfer, citing U.S. distrust
July 31 plunges to 14%21%
Iran’s foreign minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad was not on the agenda, citing distrust of the U.S. The denial caused the May‑31 market to plunge to single‑digit levels and pulled down the July‑31 price.
Iran denies uranium transfer agreement after Trump claim
June 30 plunges to 7%22%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly denied U.S. President Trump’s claim that Iran had agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile, reaffirming the uranium’s sacred status and rejecting U.S. demands. This denial caused a sharp drop in market confidence for uranium surrender by June 30, 2026.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 8%24%
Iran publicly rejected US demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline, signaling a hardline stance that led to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 and May 31 surrender outcomes, reflecting diminished confidence in near-term surrender.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 6%6%
Iran denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal. The denial coincided with a steep drop in the June‑30 market to single‑digit levels.
US-Iran tensions rise amid logistical challenges to uranium surrender by April 30 deadline
June 30 drops to 8%5%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline would be an unprecedented challenge, causing market optimism for the April 30 surrender to drop sharply. This highlighted operational and diplomatic difficulties, reducing confidence in an early surrender.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson again rejected US demands for surrender, causing a brief dip in the June‑30 odds after earlier optimism.
IAEA in talks with Russia on Iran’s enriched uranium transfer
The International Atomic Energy Agency engaged in discussions with Russia about the potential transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium, indicating multilateral efforts but also highlighting the complexity and diplomatic challenges of uranium custody. This contributed to market uncertainty and modest price movements for uranium surrender by May 31, 2026.
Kazakhstan open to hosting Iran's enriched uranium stockpile if agreement reached
December 31 rises to 50%4%
Kazakhstan indicated willingness to host Iran's uranium stockpile as a confidence-building measure under IAEA supervision, suggesting a potential third-party solution to uranium custody, which influenced market perceptions of uranium surrender feasibility.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 12%18%
The Wall Street Journal reported on May 30, 2026, that removing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented logistical and military challenge for the US. This report led to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 deadline, reflecting skepticism about near-term resolution.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and reducing market expectations for uranium surrender by the end of 2026.
Trump touts progress on Iran uranium surrender on Truth Social
June 30 rises to 21%4%
Trump’s repeated social‑media posts about a “largely negotiated” memorandum and the prospect of a surrender boosted the June‑30 market sharply in the last week of May.
Trump urges negotiators not to rush into an Iran deal
July 31 drops to 27%7%
President Trump tempered expectations by stating that negotiations were proceeding orderly but instructed representatives not to rush, keeping the blockade in full force.
Iran denies any agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Iran again denied any agreement to surrender the stockpile, stating the nuclear issue would be addressed later in final talks. The denial caused a second dip in Yes odds for all three contracts, bringing the December‑31 market back down to the high‑40 % range.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
December 31 drops to 38%12%
In late May 2026, reports confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of the enriched uranium stockpile from Iran, contradicting U.S. claims and causing market skepticism about uranium surrender.
Trump nears Iran nuclear deal as Tehran agrees to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 jumps to 26%8%
Benzinga reported that Iran had tentatively agreed to relinquish its stockpile as a condition of a nascent nuclear agreement, reinforcing the upward trend in the June‑30 market.
IAEA Director Grossi reports bulk of Iran’s uranium stockpile hidden underground
December 31 dips to 43%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that most of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is likely stored underground in Isfahan tunnels, complicating verification and removal efforts. This highlighted logistical challenges and contributed to market caution despite diplomatic progress.
Iran’s foreign ministry says uranium not on agenda of talks
June 30 drops to 9%6%
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was not discussing nuclear issues in the current talks, a clear denial that contributed to the continued decline of the “June 30” market to single‑digit levels.
Trump vows the U.S. will retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile
July 31 jumps to 34%6%
Trump reiterated that the United States would retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The repeated pressure produced a modest rebound in Yes prices for the July‑31 market (up to 34 %).
Trump says U.S. will retrieve and possibly destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. would retrieve and likely destroy Iran’s stockpile, spurring a brief rise in the December‑31 market before the mixed messages caused volatility.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and reducing market confidence in a uranium surrender deal by year-end.
Market skepticism returns as Iran has not publicly confirmed uranium surrender
December 31 drops to 38%10%
Despite reports of an agreement, Iran had not publicly confirmed surrendering its uranium stockpile, and details on enforcement remained unclear, causing market prices to decline again across all contracts as uncertainty persisted.
US President Trump outlines options for disposing of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump publicly stated that Iran's enriched uranium would be turned over to the US for destruction or destroyed in coordination with Iran, signaling US demands and influencing market optimism. Iranian officials denied nuclear issues were currently discussed, maintaining uncertainty.
Reports of Iran exploring uranium transfer to China amid ceasefire talks
July 31 plunges to 10%17%
Reports emerged that Iran was considering transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to China as part of a ceasefire deal with the U.S., though Iran’s Supreme Leader publicly opposed exporting the stockpile. This added complexity to negotiations and contributed to market uncertainty and declining optimism for uranium surrender by July 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
July 31 plunges to 17%27%
Iran again denied any agreement to hand over the stockpile, reaffirming that the issue was not part of the current cease‑fire deal. The denial pushed the July‑31 contract down from a high of 44 % on 2026‑05‑25 to a low of 17 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to surrender enriched uranium, causing market skepticism and price declines for the December 31 outcome.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer citing distrust of US
May 31 drops to 0%9%
Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism and causing market prices for earlier surrender deadlines to drop sharply.
Trump claims Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium in nuclear deal
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a broader peace agreement, causing a temporary market rally.
Trump Confirms Progress on Largely Negotiated Iran Peace Deal
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
President Trump announced that a comprehensive Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was largely negotiated, though implementation details regarding the uranium removal remained to be finalized.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the export of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, hardening Iran’s negotiating position and causing market confidence in near-term uranium surrender to drop sharply.
Trump announces Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement further boosted market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 42%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance that decreased market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement by year-end.
Trump claims Iran has largely negotiated uranium surrender deal
June 30 jumps to 47%12%
Trump announced on Truth Social that Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum that would see the stockpile surrendered. The announcement coincided with a short‑term surge to 47 % Yes on the June‑30 contract (up from 35 % on 2026‑05‑23).
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
July 31 plunges to 23%21%
Iran issued a military warning in response to US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in Iran surrendering uranium by July 31, contributing to price declines for near-term surrender deadlines.
Market reacts to Iran's uranium surrender agreement with price surges and volatility
December 31 surges to 62%21%
Following the reported agreement, markets saw sharp price increases and volatility, reflecting both optimism and uncertainty about the deal's finalization and enforcement.
US and Iran agree in principle to deal including uranium stockpile surrender and Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
On May 25, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran had agreed in principle to a deal that would see Tehran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details on the uranium transfer mechanism.
Iran says uranium not covered in preliminary U.S. deal
December 31 drops to 42%13%
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that the uranium issue was not part of the preliminary U.S.–Iran understanding, reinforcing doubts and contributing to a decline in the “December 31” market later in May.
Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium – multiple sources
Multiple outlets (ANI, Reuters, etc.) published similar reports confirming Iran’s in‑principle agreement to relinquish its stockpile. The consensus reinforced market optimism, keeping the Yes odds for the June‑30 contract above 20 % for a short period before the subsequent denial wave.
US and Iran agree in principle to deal reopening Strait of Hormuz and uranium disposal
December 31 jumps to 54%5%
A senior US official announced that the US and Iran agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and include Iran's commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, marking a significant diplomatic development.
Reports confirm Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in US-led peace deal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Multiple credible reports, including from The New York Times and regional officials, confirmed Iran's agreement in principle to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led framework to end regional conflict, causing market optimism to rise significantly.
Trump says Iran close to peace deal that includes uranium surrender
July 31 surges to 44%19%
Following the May 23 report, President Trump publicly announced that Iran was close to a deal that would involve surrendering the stockpile. The announcement reinforced market optimism, pushing the Yes price for the July‑31 contract to a two‑week high.
Iran denies agreement to hand over highly enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
A senior Iranian source firmly denied that Tehran had agreed to ship its highly enriched uranium stockpile out of the country, cooling down the initial market surge.
Trump announces near-final Iran deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
President Trump announced that a largely negotiated memorandum of understanding with Iran includes surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and increasing market confidence.
Conflicting reports emerge on Iran uranium surrender deal progress
December 31 drops to 37%9%
While US officials claimed Iran had agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium, Iranian sources and the Supreme National Security Council denied any agreement to transfer uranium abroad, creating confusion and uncertainty in the market about the deal's viability.
Trump confirms active engagement in US-led multilateral talks on Iran uranium surrender
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump publicly confirmed ongoing high-level discussions with regional leaders to secure a comprehensive agreement including Iran's surrender of enriched uranium, reinforcing market confidence in a deal by year-end.
US President Trump announces largely negotiated deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 44%11%
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This announcement boosted market confidence and prices for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 1%15%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran officially denied having agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal. This denial caused market skepticism and price declines, especially for earlier surrender deadlines.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Reports indicated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile under a developing deal with the US, with Trump framing the uranium as 'nuclear dust' and emphasizing the importance of dismantling Iran's atomic capabilities.
US President Trump confirms ongoing high-level talks on uranium surrender deal
President Trump confirmed active engagement in high-level discussions with regional leaders to finalize a comprehensive memorandum including Iran’s uranium surrender, signaling diplomatic momentum and supporting market confidence.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials confirmed Iran's in-principle agreement to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling progress in negotiations. This announcement caused the surrender market to rise sharply, though uncertainty remained due to lack of formal public confirmation.
Trump announces Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in emerging deal
December 31 jumps to 57%12%
Trump announced that Iran had verbally agreed to give up its highly‑enriched uranium as part of a broader U.S.‑led peace framework, reinforcing the market’s bullish move for the “December 31” outcome.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu supports deal requiring Iran to remove enriched uranium
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Israeli PM Netanyahu stated he and President Trump agreed that any accord must compel Iran to dismantle nuclear sites and remove enriched uranium, reflecting Israel's key condition for peace and influencing market sentiment.
Pakistan confirms encouraging progress in Iran uranium surrender negotiations
December 31 rises to 50%4%
Pakistan's Army confirmed progress in diplomatic talks aimed at preventing escalation and securing Iran's uranium surrender, supporting market optimism for a deal by year-end.
Reports of Iran agreeing to give up uranium in critical breakthrough
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Reports emerged that Iran had verbally indicated willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material as part of a deal, with President Trump announcing a largely negotiated agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This news briefly boosted market prices but uncertainty remained about finalization.
Trump announces largely negotiated peace deal with Iran
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
President Trump announced on Truth Social that a peace deal was largely negotiated, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address the nuclear stockpile.
Iran officially denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Following reports of an agreement, Iranian officials publicly denied any deal to surrender enriched uranium, stating the nuclear issue remains under negotiation. This contradiction introduced renewed uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm.
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding was largely negotiated with Iran, including commitments on uranium surrender and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence temporarily.
Iran agrees to give up uranium in critical breakthrough from Trump announcement
December 31 rises to 47%4%
Reports indicated Iranian officials verbally signaled willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material in a deal expected soon, boosting market hopes despite no formal signed agreement yet.
Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium stockpile in US-led peace deal
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Reports from multiple sources including The New York Times and Pakistan Army statements confirmed Iran's in-principle agreement to give up its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework. This development was seen as a major diplomatic breakthrough, supporting market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran agrees to give up uranium in critical breakthrough announced by Trump
May 31 jumps to 16%10%
Trump announced a largely negotiated deal including Iran’s willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material, though details remained unconfirmed by Iran. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism for uranium surrender by May 31.
Reports emerge that Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Two US officials reported that Iran had agreed in principle to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough. This news caused a temporary surge in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
July 31 jumps to 34%9%
A senior Iranian source firmly denied that Tehran had agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal.
Senior Iranian source tells Reuters no uranium hand‑over agreement
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Reuters reported a senior Iranian source saying Tehran had not agreed to ship any of its highly enriched uranium, reinforcing market pessimism and pulling the December‑31 “Yes” odds lower.
US officials confirm Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
U.S. officials publicly stated that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence for the December 31 outcome to over 50%. The announcement indicated progress in negotiations but left formal agreement and verification uncertain.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
On May 24, 2026, a senior Iranian source publicly denied any agreement to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, stating that the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal with the US. This denial caused market confidence to decline sharply, especially for near-term surrender deadlines.
US-Iran peace deal includes Iran’s commitment to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
US and Iranian officials, along with mediators including Pakistan, announced progress toward a peace deal that includes Iran’s commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile amid reports of progress
July 31 plunges to 14%21%
Iranian officials denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile despite reports of progress in negotiations with the U.S., maintaining that uranium issues would be addressed in future talks. This denial caused market skepticism and a decline in confidence for uranium surrender by July 31, 2026.
Reports of Iran tentatively agreeing to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 57%17%
Reports emerged that Iran tentatively agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader nuclear deal with the U.S., causing a temporary increase in market optimism and prices for later surrender dates.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 37%16%
Iran officially denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism about a near-term surrender and causing market prices to adjust downward for uranium surrender outcomes.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender enriched uranium, with President Trump framing this as a key objective, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and raising market optimism.
Report: Trump secures Iran deal to surrender 'nuclear dust' uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
The New York Times reported that Iran signed a statement promising to give up its enriched uranium, a key breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, boosting market optimism despite ongoing skepticism from Iran.
US negotiators warn Iran of military strikes if uranium surrender not agreed
December 31 surges to 66%34%
US officials warned Iran that military strikes could resume if it refused to surrender its uranium stockpile, pressuring Iran to concede and contributing to the reported agreement to surrender uranium, impacting market prices positively.
Reports emerge Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence in a YES outcome for uranium surrender, though formal agreement and verification remained pending.
Reports claim Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile in US-led deal
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
The New York Times and other sources reported that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework, causing a significant market rally despite lack of public Iranian confirmation.
U.S. officials say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%38%
U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, causing a significant surge in market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, despite lack of public Iranian confirmation.
NYT: Iran agrees in principle to give up highly enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 55%10%
The New York Times reported that U.S. officials said Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium, reviving market optimism and pushing the “December 31” price back up to the mid‑50s.
Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in deal announced by Trump, U.S. officials say
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
The New York Times reported that Iran committed to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging deal with the US, with military pressure playing a role. This report reinforced market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Trump announces Iran will surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 47%6%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its “nuclear dust” stockpile in a developing U.S.‑Iran deal. The announcement pushed the December‑31 contract sharply higher, reflecting market optimism for a year‑end surrender.
Trump nears Iran nuclear deal as Tehran agrees to surrender enriched uranium: report
December 31 surges to 68%36%
The New York Times and other outlets reported that Iran tentatively agreed to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile, a key condition for a nuclear deal. This report increased market optimism but also sparked Republican skepticism, reflecting political complexities.
U.S. officials report Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
On May 23, 2026, U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, causing a significant market rally and optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump announces Iran uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 surges to 68%36%
President Trump publicly announced Iran's agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market confidence in a deal. The announcement highlighted U.S. negotiation tactics and the potential for a broader peace agreement.
Iran reportedly agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US-led peace deal
December 31 jumps to 53%11%
Reports emerged that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal announced by President Trump, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough and boosting market confidence.
Iran reportedly agrees to hand over enriched uranium stockpile as part of Trump deal
December 31 rises to 50%4%
A report citing US officials confirmed Iran had agreed to surrender its uranium stockpile, a major development that increased market confidence in a resolution.
US officials report Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
US officials disclosed that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market confidence for the December 31 outcome despite uncertainty about formal agreement and verification.
Reports emerge that Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US-led deal
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Multiple reports, including from The New York Times and U.S. officials, indicated that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal. This news caused a significant rally in the December 31 market, rising to around 53%, reflecting renewed optimism despite lack of Iranian public confirmation.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials announced that Iran had agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, causing a rise in market prices for the December 31 surrender outcome, reflecting increased optimism about a potential agreement.
Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium in emerging deal
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging deal, boosting market optimism despite unresolved details on implementation and verification.
Trump announces Iran's uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, a key US demand, signaling a potential breakthrough and causing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Reports say Iran agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in emerging US deal
December 31 surges to 49%16%
Multiple reports, including from The New York Times, indicated Iran verbally agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal with the US, boosting market confidence despite Iran's lack of public confirmation.
US officials say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 59%11%
US officials announced that Iran had committed in broad terms to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a proposed peace deal, a key US demand, though details on how and when remained unresolved. This announcement boosted market confidence in a potential deal.
NYT: Iran verbally agrees to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 72%31%
The New York Times reported, citing two U.S. officials, that Iran had verbally agreed to surrender its stockpile as part of a broader peace framework. The report triggered a rapid swing of +31 points on May 24, pushing the December‑31 Yes probability to its peak of 72 %.
U.S. officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
June 30 surges to 21%15%
U.S. officials announced Iran had agreed “in principle” to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, lifting the “Yes” price for the June‑30 contract from single digits to the high‑teens.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 51%9%
US officials disclosed that Iran has agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging peace deal, boosting market confidence in a YES outcome by year-end.
Reports say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Multiple credible reports, including from The New York Times and US officials, indicated Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace deal. This major diplomatic breakthrough caused a significant rise in market optimism about a YES outcome.
NYT reports Iran pledges to give up enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 46%13%
The New York Times reported that Iran had apparently committed to give up its stockpile as part of a U.S.‑led framework, prompting a brief rally in the December‑31 contract.
Reports say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 43%10%
U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, briefly boosting market optimism despite ongoing uncertainty about implementation details.
Iran reportedly agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile in U.S. deal
December 31 surges to 62%19%
Reports emerged that Iran committed in broad terms to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging U.S.-led peace framework, driving a massive surge in market optimism.
Trump announces Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing market confidence in a potential deal and signaling progress in negotiations.
US officials announce Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%10%
On May 23, 2026, multiple US officials and President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal. This announcement caused a significant surge in market optimism, with the December 31 contract jumping sharply.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
June 30 jumps to 31%13%
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender the stockpile, reviving market confidence and pushing the June‑30 odds up again.
Al Jazeera: Supreme Leader reinforces ban on uranium export
June 30 drops to 15%13%
Al Jazeera reported that Khamenei’s directive to keep the uranium inside Iran was reiterated, reinforcing market skepticism and helping keep the “June 30” probability low (around 15 %).
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium to stay inside Iran
June 30 drops to 19%9%
Khamenei issued a directive that the enriched uranium stockpile must remain inside Iran, counter‑balancing U.S. demands and pulling the market down for all surrender dates.
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 33%8%
President Trump stated the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium if necessary, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled peace talks. This statement increased market uncertainty and reflected the ongoing deadlock over uranium surrender.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, causing market participants to reduce confidence in uranium handover by year-end, reflected in price declines.
Trump says U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 rises to 25%4%
Trump announced the United States would seize or destroy Iran’s stockpile, a hard‑line statement that lifted the “June 30” price from roughly 21 % on May 21 to 25 % on May 24, reflecting renewed optimism for a surrender.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bans export of enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
Khamenei publicly ordered that the near‑weapons‑grade uranium remain inside Iran, undercutting the earlier optimism and sending the “December 31” odds down again, reflected in the market’s fall from the April‑April peak to around 45 % by late May.
Khamenei refuses to move Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid fragile peace talks
June 30 drops to 10%12%
Khamenei issued a directive that the stockpile must stay inside Iran. The decree reversed earlier optimism and drove the June‑30 market sharply down from 22 % on 2026‑05‑20 to 10 % on 2026‑06‑03.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
December 31 drops to 46%6%
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile must not be sent abroad, hardening Tehran’s stance and complicating negotiations with the US, which demands uranium removal. This directive was a major setback for market optimism regarding uranium surrender.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain in Iran
December 31 dips to 39%4%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile abroad, hardening Iran’s stance and complicating US demands for uranium surrender. This directive was reported by Reuters and widely covered, causing market skepticism about uranium transfer.
Supreme Leader Khamenei bans export of Iran’s uranium stockpile
July 31 drops to 14%14%
Khamenei ordered the stockpile stay inside Iran, a hardening signal that drove the July‑31 “Yes” probability to its lowest level.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
President Trump declared the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile if necessary, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled negotiations and reducing market optimism for voluntary surrender by May 31.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile, reversing earlier claims of a surrender deal and causing a significant drop in Yes pricing across all outcomes.
Iran's Supreme Leader draws red line over uranium in US nuclear talks
December 31 drops to 40%6%
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly directed top officials to reject Washington's demand to transfer Iran's highly enriched uranium outside the country, causing a drop in near-term market expectations.
Supreme Leader orders uranium stockpile to stay inside Iran
June 30 dips to 11%4%
The Defense News piece reiterated Khamenei’s ban on export, reinforcing the narrative of Iranian intransigence and sustaining the low probabilities for early surrender dates across all contracts.
Trump vows US will retrieve or destroy Iran's uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 42%7%
President Trump publicly declared that the US intends to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, increasing pressure on Iran and supporting market expectations for a YES outcome. This statement was part of a broader strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directs that enriched uranium must remain in Iran
December 31 drops to 35%10%
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive prohibiting the removal of the enriched uranium stockpile from the country, presenting a major obstacle to U.S. demands.
Iran asserts no uranium enrichment limits under IAEA oversight
June 30 drops to 14%9%
Iran's UN mission stated there are no restrictions on its uranium enrichment under IAEA supervision, dampening hopes for a near-term deal to halt enrichment or surrender stockpiles.
President Trump vows to seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 rises to 41%3%
President Donald Trump declared that the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile if necessary, signaling a hardline stance and increasing tensions. This statement underscored US demands and influenced market volatility around uranium surrender timelines.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bars enriched uranium stockpile from leaving country
December 31 drops to 39%14%
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive forbidding the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile abroad, hardening Tehran’s position and complicating U.S.-Iran negotiations. This directive was a major setback for market optimism regarding uranium surrender by any near-term deadline.
Iran’s Supreme Leader bars uranium stockpile from leaving country
June 30 plunges to 11%29%
Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the uranium stockpile must stay inside Iran, directly contradicting the U.S. demand that it be removed. The news was reported by Reuters and amplified on social media, driving the market sharply down as traders saw the prospect of a surrender receding.
Khamenei Directs That Enriched Uranium Stockpile Must Stay in Iran
June 30 drops to 16%7%
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive stating that the country's enriched uranium stockpile must not leave the country, dealing a blow to US demands and lowering market expectations.
Putin offers to store Iran’s enriched uranium amid U.S.-Iran tensions
June 30 drops to 29%9%
President Putin offered to transport and store Iran’s enriched uranium, recalling the 2015 Russian custodianship. The proposal was taken as a positive step, lifting the June‑30 market temporarily.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium stockpile to Russia in peace offer
December 31 dips to 43%2%
Iran offered to transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, but U.S. officials dismissed the offer as insufficient, demanding custody instead.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
July 31 plunges to 18%17%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia instead of the US as part of peace talks, which the US dismissed as insufficient, maintaining uncertainty and lowering market confidence for US custody by mid-2026.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in peace proposal
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Iran’s proposal to transfer its stockpile to Russia was rejected by Washington, dampening optimism for a surrender and nudging the December‑31 market lower.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
May 31 dips to 7%4%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of peace talks, which the US dismissed as insufficient since it demands uranium surrender to US custody, maintaining market uncertainty.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal
Iran offered to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Russia as part of a peace proposal, signaling a potential third-party solution that complicated U.S. demands for direct surrender.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands for a uranium hand‑over, causing the June‑30 market to slip as traders reassessed the likelihood of a surrender.
Iran reiterates refusal to transfer enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 14%28%
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism about near-term uranium surrender and causing market prices for May 31 surrender to drop further.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal offer
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
Iran offered to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, diverging from U.S. demands for direct surrender. The U.S. dismissed the offer as insufficient, maintaining demand for physical custody, which kept market optimism low for near-term surrender.
Iran denies any agreement to transfer enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 11%12%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman reiterated that the uranium stockpile would not be transferred anywhere, directly contradicting the emerging U.S. narrative. The denial caused a sharp pull‑back in market optimism, especially for the June‑30 contract.
Iran’s Bagheri Kani says uranium not on negotiation agenda
June 30 drops to 11%9%
Bagheri Kani publicly stated that the uranium issue was not part of current negotiations, reinforcing market scepticism and causing the June‑30 price to fall further.
Khamenei orders Iran’s enriched uranium to stay inside the country
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the enriched uranium must stay inside Iran. The announcement further eroded market confidence, pulling Yes odds for all three contracts down to the 30‑40 % band.
Iran’s Bagheri Kani says uranium stockpile off‑table in talks
July 31 drops to 23%12%
Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani reiterated that the uranium stockpile was not on the negotiation agenda, causing a second dip in the July‑31 “Yes” odds.
Oman diplomat says Iran agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium
December 31 rises to 37%2%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated that Iran agreed in talks with the US never to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations. This statement suggested progress but did not confirm a public agreement to surrender uranium by March 31, 2026.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 21%10%
Iran’s foreign ministry publicly rejected any U.S. demand to hand over the stockpile, stating the material would stay in Iran. This denial caused a steep drop in Yes odds for the June‑30 contract, falling to a low of 21 % on May 12.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 dips to 6%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, citing distrust of the US, which decreased market confidence in a uranium handover by the May 31 deadline.
Iran Threatens 90% Uranium Enrichment as Trump Rejects Peace Proposal
June 30 drops to 17%6%
Tensions escalated as Iran threatened to enrich uranium to weapons-grade 90% if attacked again, following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal. This caused a drop in confidence for near-term agreements.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, hardening stance
December 31 rises to 46%4%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran’s hardline position and decreasing market confidence in a uranium handover by early deadlines.
Iran offers to transfer some enriched uranium to third country but rejects dismantling nuclear facilities
Iran responded to a U.S. peace proposal by offering to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, but rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities, reflecting partial concession but firm limits, which tempered market optimism.
US Defense Secretary warns Iran to surrender uranium or face seizure
June 30 drops to 22%8%
U.S. Defense Secretary warned Iran that failure to surrender its stockpile could lead to seizure or destruction, increasing market pessimism for early surrender dates and nudging the June‑30 price down.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism in the market and causing a decrease in confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump announces Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, urges uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
President Trump declared Iran's agreement not to pursue nuclear weapons and emphasized the need for Iran to surrender enriched uranium, raising market hopes for a deal by December 31.
US nears framework for Iran deal as Trump demands uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 47%7%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and the US intensified pressure for Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. Despite progress, key obstacles remained, and Iran was reviewing the US peace proposal, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 rises to 29%3%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling progress in negotiations. However, key obstacles remained, and skepticism persisted, limiting market gains for near-term surrender dates.
Trump downplays value of Iran's uranium while demanding its return
June 30 drops to 19%10%
President Trump made contradictory statements, dismissing the value of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as worthless while simultaneously insisting on its surrender.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but insists on taking it back
May 31 drops to 6%12%
President Trump made contradictory statements dismissing the value of Iran's enriched uranium while simultaneously demanding its surrender, reflecting tensions in US policy and contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but demands its surrender
June 30 drops to 19%10%
President Trump publicly downplayed the value of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile while simultaneously insisting on its surrender, reflecting contradictory US policy signals that contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility for uranium surrender outcomes.
Trump says Iran’s enriched uranium is worthless but the U.S. will take it
December 31 dips to 45%2%
Trump dismissed the value of Iran’s uranium while insisting the United States must take possession. The mixed signal dampened optimism, contributing to a decline in Yes prices for the December‑31 market from the high‑70s back toward the 40 % range.
Trump dismisses Iran’s uranium stockpile as worthless, then demands it back
June 30 dips to 10%4%
Trump’s contradictory remarks that Iran’s stockpile was “worthless” but must be taken back caused a steep decline in the “June 30” market, which fell from 14 % on May 1 to 10 % by June 9.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium as worthless, then demands it back
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Trump called Iran’s uranium “worthless” yet insisted the U.S. must get it back. The contradictory stance added uncertainty, prompting a modest dip in all three market curves in early May.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, U.S. officials say
June 30 jumps to 21%9%
U.S. officials reported that Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched‑uranium stockpile. The news lifted the June‑30 contract as traders priced in a possible surrender before the end of June.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 drops to 12%12%
Iran publicly refused to surrender its enriched uranium by the April deadline, confirming earlier skepticism and driving the June‑30 market lower as the window narrowed.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 drops to 32%9%
Iran publicly refused to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence and prices for the April 30 contract. This hardened Iran's position and decreased market confidence in a uranium handover by early deadlines.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for that deadline, reflecting diminished expectations for a near-term resolution. Traders shifted focus to later deadlines, anticipating a possible agreement after April.
WSJ: Removing Iran’s uranium by April 30 would be unprecedented challenge
June 30 plunges to 23%19%
WSJ analysis highlighted the logistical difficulty of moving the stockpile by the April 30 deadline, causing the “June 30” market to slump sharply from 42 % to 23 % in the following days.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 28%13%
Iran publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reversing earlier optimism and causing the June‑30 market to slide back toward lower odds.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Putin offered Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, suggesting a potential third-party custodian role and increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
July 31 plunges to 14%30%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson publicly rejected any U.S. demand to hand over the stockpile, driving the “Yes” percentages down across the three contracts, especially the July‑31 market.
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
June 30 plunges to 33%27%
Iran issued a military warning over US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term uranium surrender agreement. No concrete diplomatic progress emerged, leading to a drop in market prices for uranium surrender by April 30 and June 30.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
June 30 surges to 41%19%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium in a developing US‑Iran deal. The announcement boosted optimism for a June‑30 surrender, pushing the market up sharply.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 39%2%
Iran officially denied reaching any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting earlier U.S. claims. This denial caused a significant drop in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, reflecting increased skepticism about Iran's willingness to comply.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
December 31 drops to 38%5%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium was not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, leading to decreased market confidence in uranium surrender by end of 2026.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium, Trump says it no longer concerns him
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Iran officially rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, with Trump stating the issue no longer concerns him, causing market confidence to drop as the likelihood of a surrender agreement diminished.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 38%29%
Iran publicly refused to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market confidence and prices for the April 30 contract.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 rises to 42%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, supporting market optimism for a uranium surrender agreement by December 31.
IAEA, Russia, and US hold talks on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 47%8%
The IAEA, Russia, and the US engaged in discussions focused on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium from the damaged Isfahan site, indicating potential progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the uranium stockpile issue. This raised market expectations for a possible uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials reported Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting the December 31 market to 50.5% YES and signaling stronger market confidence in a resolution.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia could transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015, which was interpreted by markets as increasing the likelihood of Iran surrendering uranium by December 31, boosting optimism for a resolution.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Iran denied any agreement to hand over its stockpile, reinforcing market doubts and pushing the June‑30 contract down further.
Iran agrees in principle to hand over enriched uranium stockpile ahead of US talks
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Reports emerged that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, though the final recipient remained undecided, with potential recipients including Russia, the IAEA, or the US. This development increased market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump says peace deal is very close as Iran rejects nuclear surrender claim
June 30 surges to 57%33%
President Trump claimed a peace deal was very close, but Tehran rejected the assertion that it was ready to surrender nuclear materials, highlighting ongoing friction.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 39%14%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei publicly denied U.S. President Trump's claim that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing that uranium transfer was never raised in negotiations. This hardened Iran's stance and caused a significant drop in market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad, calls it 'sacred'
December 31 plunges to 63%18%
Iran publicly rejected claims of agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad, dampening market optimism and causing a price decline across surrender deadlines.
WSJ warns of unprecedented U.S. challenge to secure Iran’s uranium by April 30
June 30 drops to 33%12%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented logistical and military challenge. The story noted a 12‑point drop in the April‑30 market and a widening gap to the June‑30 contract, driving the market’s sharp decline for near‑term surrender dates.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid U.S.-Iran tensions
December 31 surges to 47%22%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Moscow would transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, a move that briefly boosted market confidence in a resolution by December 31.
Iran agrees in talks with US not to stockpile enriched uranium — Oman
December 31 jumps to 39%6%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reported that Iran agreed in talks with the US not to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations and raising hopes for a comprehensive deal within three months.
WSJ: Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented U.S. challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 44%32%
The Wall Street Journal highlighted the logistical challenges of a pre‑April 30 surrender, prompting a sharp drop in the April‑30 contract and a corresponding rise in the June‑30 contract.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to secure Iran uranium by April 2026
December 31 drops to 70%11%
The Wall Street Journal highlighted the logistical and military difficulties the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, which caused a significant drop in market optimism and prices for the April 30 deadline.
Reports suggest progress in Iran uranium surrender talks, boosting market optimism
December 31 surges to 66%31%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced.
Trump claims Iran has largely negotiated uranium surrender deal
December 31 surges to 81%36%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum under which the enriched uranium stockpile would be surrendered, prompting a sharp rise in the market’s “Yes” price for all three deadline contracts.
US officials report Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 80%55%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism for a uranium surrender deal despite the lack of formal agreement or IAEA verification.
Market optimism peaks on reports of potential uranium surrender deal
December 31 surges to 81%50%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced.
U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
December 31 surges to 81%55%
Reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran were negotiating a deal involving the release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism and causing a price spike in the December 31 contract.
Russian President Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 surges to 76%52%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a similar 2015 operation. This offer was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market confidence in a potential uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad
December 31 plunges to 39%36%
Hours after Trump's announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium outside Iran, emphasizing the material's sacred status and rejecting US claims. This contradiction caused market uncertainty and tempered the earlier optimism.
Trump says Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
December 31 surges to 70%30%
Trump stated the deal to end the Middle East conflict is largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to relinquish enriched uranium, which raised market expectations for a YES outcome despite unresolved details.
President Trump claims Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%48%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough, which temporarily boosted market optimism despite lack of independent confirmation from Iran.
US considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
December 31 surges to 68%32%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal involving the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism temporarily.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%54%
President Trump claimed Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market confidence significantly. However, Iran did not confirm this, leaving uncertainty.
WSJ: Removing Iran’s uranium by April 30 would be unprecedented
June 30 plunges to 12%27%
A WSJ story highlighting the logistical difficulty of moving Iran’s stockpile by April 30 lowered confidence in the near‑term deadline, dragging the April‑30‑linked June‑30 contract down.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%46%
President Trump announced on a televised interview that Iran had agreed to hand over its highly‑enriched uranium stockpile, a claim later echoed by Reuters. The statement sparked a sharp rise in Yes prices across all three settlement dates, most noticeably a jump to 81 % on April 17 for the December‑31 contract.
Wall Street Journal reports US faces unprecedented challenge to secure Iran uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would encounter in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that outcome.
U.S. and Iran negotiate $20 bn frozen‑funds swap for uranium surrender
June 30 surges to 54%23%
U.S. and Iran entered advanced talks on a three‑page cash‑for‑uranium framework, linking the release of $20 billion in frozen assets to Tehran’s surrender of its enriched stockpile. The news gave traders hope of a deal, pushing Yes odds higher for the June‑30 contract.
Trump says no ground troops needed to secure Iran’s uranium
December 31 jumps to 45%5%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium and that no U.S. ground troops would be necessary to secure it. This reinforced market optimism about a peaceful resolution and uranium transfer without military intervention.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 52%14%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%42%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough. This announcement temporarily increased market optimism about a YES outcome for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Reports of progress in Iran uranium surrender negotiations boost market optimism
December 31 surges to 65%25%
Market prices peaked around April 17, 2026, reflecting optimism from reports suggesting progress in negotiations for Iran to surrender its uranium stockpile, though no formal agreement was yet announced. This optimism was driven by US officials indicating potential agreement terms and diplomatic efforts.
US-Iran negotiations include $20 billion frozen funds for uranium surrender
December 31 surges to 66%34%
Reports emerged of a proposed deal where the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, fueling market optimism and a price spike.
Trump vows U.S. will retrieve, likely destroy Iran's uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
President Trump declared the U.S. intention to retrieve and potentially destroy Iran's enriched uranium, increasing pressure on Iran and raising market expectations for uranium surrender by year-end.
Reports emerge of US-Iran $20 billion frozen funds-for-uranium deal
December 31 surges to 67%34%
Reports surfaced that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal involving $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile. This raised market optimism, causing price spikes in related contracts.
Iran publicly contradicts Trump's uranium surrender claims
December 31 plunges to 39%36%
Within hours of Trump's optimistic statements, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei rejected the idea of transferring its nuclear material to the United States.
IAEA chief says bulk of Iran’s uranium likely hidden in Isfahan tunnels
December 31 surges to 63%38%
IAEA chief Grossi publicly stated that most of the stockpile is likely stored in Isfahan tunnels and that removal or dilution is essential. The comment raised hopes that a concrete disposal pathway could be negotiated, briefly lifting the Yes price for the December‑31 market.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
June 30 surges to 55%27%
US officials said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched‑uranium stockpile. The news was interpreted as a concrete step toward surrender, lifting market odds for a “Yes” on the June‑30 contract.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium, describing it as 'nuclear dust,' which initially boosted the market's Yes pricing for all outcomes.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 14%33%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated U.S. demands for uranium surrender were non-starters, leading to a sharp decline in Yes pricing, particularly for the May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Trump claims Iran will hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%28%
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s uranium would be “immediately turned over” to the United States, a claim that implied a forthcoming surrender and spurred a sharp rally in the “December 31” market to a high of 81 %.
US-Iran tensions rise amid logistical challenges to uranium surrender by April 30
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented challenge for the US, causing market optimism for the April 30 deadline to drop sharply due to operational and diplomatic difficulties.
Trump claims Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 81%28%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and surrender its stockpile, raising market optimism despite lack of public confirmation from Iran. This statement caused a temporary price increase reflecting hopes for a breakthrough.
President Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%48%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust,' which caused a significant surge in market optimism for surrender by December 31 and other deadlines, despite Iran's lack of immediate confirmation.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%42%
President Trump announced that Iran is very close to a peace deal including surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism despite lack of Iranian confirmation and ongoing negotiation uncertainties.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%41%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to hand over its store of enriched uranium, which he referred to as 'nuclear dust,' boosting market optimism for a deal.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 33%20%
The WSJ detailed logistical and military challenges for the US to secure Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to market skepticism and a price drop for the April 30 outcome.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
June 30 drops to 12%12%
The Wall Street Journal detailed logistical and military difficulties for the US to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, which further cooled market optimism and caused a price drop in the April 30 contract.
Iran official states no scenario to fully give up uranium enrichment for peace
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
A senior Iranian official publicly declared that Iran would not agree to completely cease uranium enrichment under any peace deal with the U.S., signaling a hardline stance that dampened market expectations for uranium surrender by April 30, 2026.
Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented US challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 55%33%
Wall Street Journal analysis highlighted logistical challenges to a April‑30 surrender, pulling market odds down for the earlier deadline and shifting focus to the June‑30 contract.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, though uncertainty remained about formalization and verification.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid U.S.–Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 81%11%
Putin announced that Russia was ready to transport and store Iran’s enriched uranium, echoing the 2015 arrangement. The news lifted optimism and helped the market swing upward, contributing to the April 17 peak of 81 % Yes for the December‑31 contract.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman publicly rejected US demands to transfer enriched uranium abroad, citing distrust and national security concerns. This hardened stance decreased market confidence in a near-term uranium surrender, leading to price drops in related markets.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 10%32%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium to the US was not on the agenda, citing distrust. This reinforced market skepticism about Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, leading to a drop in market prices for earlier deadlines.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance that decreased market confidence in a near-term uranium handover. This rejection complicated diplomatic efforts and led to a drop in market prices for surrender by April and May deadlines.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of U.S.
December 31 plunges to 41%29%
Iran’s foreign minister said the transfer of enriched uranium was “not on the agenda” and cited a lack of trust in the United States. The declaration caused the market to tumble, reflected in the drop from 70 % on 2026‑04‑08 to 41 % on 2026‑04‑10 for the December‑31 contract.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 41%29%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, labeling the demands as non-starters. This firm stance decreased market confidence in an early surrender by April 30, 2026, reflected in falling prices for the December 31 contract.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad
Iranian officials publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, calling the material 'sacred' and denying any agreement to transfer it, causing a sharp market correction.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
December 31 drops to 40%13%
The Wall Street Journal detailed logistical and military hurdles for the US to secure Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, which caused a significant drop in market optimism and prices for the April 30 contract.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
December 31 drops to 32%12%
The Wall Street Journal detailed operational and diplomatic difficulties for the US to secure Iran’s enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 outcome.
White House says Iran indicated willingness to turn over enriched uranium stocks
White House press secretary stated Iran had indicated it would turn over its enriched uranium stocks, raising market hopes for a potential agreement and briefly supporting prices.
White House says Iran has indicated it would turn over enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 41%16%
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that Iran indicated a willingness to turn over its stocks of enriched uranium, which was a key priority for President Trump. This statement boosted market confidence in a resolution.
Trump declares Iran will end uranium enrichment
December 31 surges to 41%15%
Trump announced on social media that Iran would end enrichment and work with the U.S. to remove the stockpile, lifting market optimism and sending the “December 31” price up from a low of 26 % on April 3 to 41 % on April 8.
White House claims Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to U.S.
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
The U.S. government announced Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile to American custody, boosting market confidence for a resolution by December 31.
White House says Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to US
December 31 surges to 81%28%
The White House announced Iran's agreement to transfer enriched uranium, boosting market confidence temporarily, reflected in a price peak for the December 31 outcome.
US Defense Secretary warns Iran to surrender uranium or face seizure
June 30 plunges to 24%18%
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran that the US would seize its enriched uranium stockpile if Iran did not surrender it, escalating tensions and impacting market expectations for uranium surrender by June 30 and later dates.
US demands Iran surrender enriched uranium or faces seizure
December 31 drops to 27%7%
US officials publicly demanded Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile or face seizure, escalating tensions. Iran rejected transfer demands, citing sovereignty and distrust, which caused market skepticism about imminent uranium surrender.
WSJ: Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented U.S. challenge by April 2026
June 30 plunges to 32%21%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran’s enriched uranium would be an “unprecedented challenge” for the United States, stressing logistical and military hurdles. The story coincided with the market’s sharp drop from 53 % to 32 % on 2026‑04‑04, driving the June‑30 contract lower.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 plunges to 25%17%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a firm refusal that further dampened market expectations for a uranium handover by the end of 2026.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 22%20%
Reports emerged that Iran would not comply with the April 30, 2026 deadline to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, causing market prices for the April 30 contract to drop sharply as traders abandoned that timeline.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 23%19%
Iran's refusal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract, reflecting diminished confidence in an early resolution. Traders shifted focus to later deadlines anticipating a possible future agreement.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
Reports indicated Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract and increased skepticism about an early resolution.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
CryptoBriefing reported that Iran refused to surrender its enriched uranium by the April‑30 deadline, a stance that pushed the “December 31” market down sharply from 53 % to 32 % on the same day.
Iran publicly refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran's refusal to compromise on uranium surrender by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market optimism for the April 30 outcome, reflecting skepticism about near-term uranium transfer.
Market sharply reprices Iran uranium surrender odds after diplomatic setback
December 31 plunges to 32%18%
On March 31, the market for Iran surrendering enriched uranium by December 31 dropped sharply from about 50% to near 32%, reflecting a sudden loss of optimism likely due to diplomatic or negotiation setbacks, signaling reduced chances of a deal within the year.
WSJ reports US faces unprecedented challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 26%16%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would face in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that deadline.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, causing market prices for the April 30 contract to drop sharply due to increased skepticism.
Iran denies any agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran issued an official denial that it had reached any deal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, contradicting earlier speculation. The denial caused the market’s “December 31” probability to fall sharply from 53 % to 33 % the next day.
Market sharply reprices lower on skepticism about Iran uranium surrender by year-end
December 31 plunges to 32%18%
On March 31, 2026, the market for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31 dropped sharply from about 50% to near 32%, reflecting increased skepticism about a deal within the year. This move was driven by emerging doubts about Iran's willingness to comply and the complexity of negotiations.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting diminished confidence in an imminent agreement. This hardened stance indicated resilience rather than capitulation, causing traders to abandon the April 30 contract.
Analysts spot possible June‑30 Iran uranium surrender window
June 30 rises to 12%4%
Early March speculation that Iran might bargain for a June‑30 surrender caused the June‑30 market to rise from single‑digit levels toward the low‑teens.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
December 31 plunges to 32%21%
Iran's firm refusal to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market confidence for the April 30 outcome, reflecting traders' abandonment of near-term surrender expectations.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
June 30 plunges to 23%19%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market confidence for the April 30 outcome, reflecting increased skepticism about near-term uranium handover.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 plunges to 38%15%
Iran's government publicly denied reaching any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, reinforcing skepticism about a uranium handover and causing market confidence to decrease for early surrender deadlines.
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