Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have accelerated since the March 2026 escalation with Hezbollah, with IDF ground forces crossing the Litani River in late May for the first time since 2006 and advancing toward Nabatieh after issuing repeated evacuation orders for the city and surrounding villages. Recent developments include the capture of Beaufort Castle, artillery and drone strikes on Nabatieh district targets, and reports of troops operating on the city's outskirts alongside Lebanese army withdrawals from nearby positions such as Kfar Tebnit. Ceasefire proposals mediated in early June were rejected by Hezbollah, leaving active combat and displacement orders in place as of mid-June. These battlefield dynamics, combined with ongoing cross-border exchanges and U.S. diplomatic efforts, shape trader assessments of entry timelines, with any verified IDF incursion into the urban core serving as the key resolution trigger.