**South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats versus 110 for the main opposition People Power Party), which structurally blocks any impeachment motion.** Presidential impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority (200 votes) to pass the legislature, giving Lee’s party effective veto power over proceedings regardless of public petitions or opposition criticism. Approval ratings have declined into the high 30s to mid-40s amid housing market pressures, local election ballot issues, and economic concerns, prompting a recent cabinet reshuffle and policy adviser exit. These developments reflect typical midterm-style political friction rather than conditions that could fracture the ruling coalition or generate cross-party support for removal. Lee’s suspended legal cases and opposition statements on judicial matters have fueled periodic calls for accountability, but they have not translated into legislative momentum. No scheduled events or verified developments through September 2026 have altered the vote math or created a realistic path to the required threshold before year-end. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 91.8% as the dominant consensus.