**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 27 centers on late-summer climatology and short-range forecast guidance, with market-implied odds favoring a minimum near 24–26°C.** In Chengdu’s humid subtropical regime, daily lows typically decline through August from roughly 23–24°C early in the month toward 21–22°C by month’s end, driven by lengthening nights and weakening monsoon moisture. Current model consensus points to partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms on the 27th, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and support minima around 24–25°C. Recent runs show modest spread arising from uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing; stronger or more persistent convection could drop readings toward 23°C, while clearer conditions or warmer advection would favor 26°C or higher. With resolution imminent, updates from the China Meteorological Administration’s next high-resolution model cycles will be the key catalyst for any sharp revision in probabilities.