Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডStarmer - UK PM 95%
Petro - Colombia President 1.5%
Abbas - President of Palestine <1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%
$16,554,701 Vol.
$16,554,701 Vol.
Starmer - UK PM
95%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Trump - USA President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 95%
Petro - Colombia President 1.5%
Abbas - President of Palestine <1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%
$16,554,701 Vol.
$16,554,701 Vol.
Starmer - UK PM
95%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Trump - USA President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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