Reports highlight Andy Burnham as likely next UK Prime Minister

Andy Burnham rises to 97%4%

Following Starmer's resignation and Burnham's by-election victory, multiple media outlets reported that Burnham is poised to become the next UK Prime Minister. These reports reinforced market confidence in Burnham's ascension, pushing his price near certainty.

Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham hold meeting to discuss transition

Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham met to discuss the transition of power following Starmer's resignation. The meeting was described as frosty, reflecting tensions between the two, but it was a necessary step to ensure an orderly handover. This event supported the market's expectation of Burnham's imminent appointment.

Wes Streeting Endorses Andy Burnham for Labour Leadership

Wes Streeting publicly endorsed Andy Burnham for Labour leadership, effectively consolidating support and clearing the path for Burnham's unchallenged ascension to Prime Minister.

Andy Burnham sworn in as MP for Makerfield, solidifying leadership bid

Andy Burnham surges to 93%33%

Andy Burnham was officially sworn in as the Member of Parliament for Makerfield, a key procedural step enabling him to challenge for the Labour leadership and the premiership. This event reinforced market confidence in Burnham's prospects, contributing to a significant price increase.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer Announces Resignation Plan

Keir Starmer announced his plan to resign as Prime Minister amid mounting internal party pressure and poor public approval, paving the way for Andy Burnham to become the next Prime Minister.

Wes Streeting abandons leadership bid and endorses Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham surges to 77%71%

Wes Streeting, initially a leadership contender, withdrew from the race and publicly endorsed Andy Burnham, consolidating support behind Burnham and increasing his likelihood of becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister.

Keir Starmer announces resignation amid mounting party pressure

Andy Burnham surges to 97%28%

Following sustained internal party pressure and Burnham's by-election victory, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation plan, clearing the way for Burnham to become the next Labour leader and likely Prime Minister. This announcement caused Burnham's market probability to surge to near certainty.

Keir Starmer announces resignation as Prime Minister

Facing mounting internal pressure and after Burnham's by-election victory, Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister, triggering a Labour leadership election and clearing the path for Burnham.

Keir Starmer Announces Plan to Resign as UK Prime Minister

Andy Burnham surges to 97%30%

Amid mounting pressure and following Andy Burnham's by-election victory, Keir Starmer announced plans to step down as Prime Minister. This announcement confirmed Burnham as the likely successor, causing his market price to peak.

Keir Starmer announces resignation as UK Prime Minister

Andy Burnham surges to 60%44%

Facing mounting pressure from within his own Labour Party after poor local election results and political scandals, Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister and Labour leader. This announcement cleared the path for Andy Burnham, the newly elected MP for Makerfield, to become the likely successor, causing a sharp rise in Burnham's market price.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces resignation amid party pressure

Andy Burnham surges to 93%33%

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister following mounting internal party pressure and poor local election results, paving the way for Andy Burnham to become the next Prime Minister and causing Burnham's market probability to surge to near certainty.

Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister; Andy Burnham Emerges as Frontrunner

Andy Burnham surges to 96%36%

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister following internal party pressure and poor election results. Andy Burnham, having recently won the Makerfield by-election, was widely expected to succeed him, causing a sharp rise in Burnham's market price.

Wes Streeting Endorses Andy Burnham for Labour Leadership

Andy Burnham surges to 96%36%

Wes Streeting announced he would back Andy Burnham for Labour leader, effectively consolidating support behind Burnham and reducing the likelihood of a contested leadership race, which boosted Burnham's market position.

Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation amid mounting pressure

Andy Burnham surges to 93%28%

Following Burnham's by-election victory and growing internal party pressure, reports emerged that Keir Starmer was reflecting on his political future and expected to announce his resignation soon, further solidifying Burnham's position as the next Prime Minister.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calls on Keir Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis

Yvette Cooper dips to 0%1%

Yvette Cooper publicly urged Prime Minister Starmer to step down following Burnham's by-election victory and mounting internal party pressure, further destabilizing Starmer's position and diminishing her own market prospects.

Andy Burnham secures support of over 200 Labour MPs for leadership challenge

Andy Burnham surges to 66%23%

Following his by-election victory, Andy Burnham gained the backing of more than 200 Labour MPs, surpassing the 20% threshold needed to trigger a leadership contest, increasing pressure on Keir Starmer to resign.

Andy Burnham Wins Makerfield By-Election, Re-Entering Parliament

Andy Burnham surges to 93%74%

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, securing a parliamentary seat that enabled him to mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, significantly boosting his market probability as the next UK Prime Minister.

Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election, boosting leadership prospects

Andy Burnham surges to 56%35%

Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election secured his return to Parliament and significantly increased his chances of becoming Labour leader and next Prime Minister, causing a sharp rise in his market probability.

Al Carns Resigns as Armed Forces Minister, Hints at Labour Leadership Challenge

Al Carns dips to 1%2%

Al Carns resigned over defence spending disagreements and publicly hinted at a possible leadership challenge to Keir Starmer, briefly raising his profile as a potential next prime minister, though his market price remained low.

Nigel Farage Declares Desire to Become UK Prime Minister

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage publicly stated he wants to be Prime Minister, claiming he has the public rapport and courage to challenge the establishment. Despite this, his market price remained low due to limited political pathway and competition.

Nigel Farage Claims He Is Only Person With Enough Courage to Be Prime Minister

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage publicly claimed he is the only person with enough public rapport and courage to be Prime Minister, though his market probability remained low amid Labour's internal crisis.

Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns Resign Over Defence Spending Dispute

Al Carns dips to 1%2%

John Healey and Al Carns resigned from government over disagreements with the defence investment plan, highlighting internal government divisions and weakening Starmer's leadership, which affected market perceptions of leadership contenders.

Ed Miliband pushes to be Chancellor under potential Burnham premiership

Ed Miliband publicly positioned himself to be Chancellor if Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, signaling internal Labour party dynamics and leadership preparations ahead of Starmer's expected resignation.

Labour suffers heavy losses to Reform UK in local elections, increasing pressure on Starmer

In the May 2026 local elections, the far-right Reform UK party made historic gains, particularly in areas like Makerfield, undermining Labour's support and intensifying internal party pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This political setback set the stage for leadership challenges and increased market interest in alternative candidates like Andy Burnham.

Andy Burnham selected as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham rises to 15%2%

Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham as the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, bypassing a local vote. This formal selection was a key step enabling Burnham to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge.

Thirty Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after election losses

Following disastrous local and devolved election results, a significant number of Labour MPs publicly called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, intensifying the leadership crisis within the party.

Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham surges to 43%23%

Labour MP Josh Simons announced his resignation to allow Andy Burnham to contest the Makerfield by-election, a critical step for Burnham to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Starmer. This announcement significantly boosted Burnham's market price.

Andy Burnham Wins Makerfield By-Election, Re-enters Parliament

Andy Burnham jumps to 14%10%

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, securing a parliamentary seat that enabled him to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership, significantly boosting his market odds as the next UK Prime Minister.

Andy Burnham announces candidacy for Makerfield by-election to re-enter Parliament

Andy Burnham surges to 43%21%

Andy Burnham declared his intention to contest the Makerfield by-election, seen as the critical step to re-enter Parliament and mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, significantly boosting his market price.

Andy Burnham confirms Labour leadership bid via Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham jumps to 16%8%

Andy Burnham announced his intention to run for Labour leadership by contesting the Makerfield by-election, signaling a direct challenge to Keir Starmer and increasing his market probability significantly.

Andy Burnham announces bid for Labour leadership via Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham jumps to 13%10%

Andy Burnham declared his intention to run for the Labour leadership, seeking to return to Parliament by contesting the Makerfield by-election. This move positioned him as the main challenger to Starmer and significantly increased his market probability.

Wes Streeting officially announces bid to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader

Wes Streeting jumps to 24%5%

Streeting publicly confirmed his leadership bid, calling for a proper contest to replace Starmer. This solidified his position as a main challenger but also highlighted divisions within Labour, affecting market pricing for leadership outcomes.

Andy Burnham confirms bid for Labour leadership and parliamentary seat

Andy Burnham jumps to 14%11%

Andy Burnham announced his intention to run for Labour leadership and contest the Makerfield by-election to enter Parliament, positioning himself as a leading candidate to replace Starmer.

Angela Rayner cleared of tax wrongdoing, raising her leadership profile

Angela Rayner rises to 14%4%

Angela Rayner was cleared by HMRC of deliberate wrongdoing in a tax scandal, making her eligible to run for Labour leadership and briefly increasing her market prospects. However, her price declined as Burnham's candidacy gained momentum.

Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham jumps to 11%8%

Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand as the candidate in the Makerfield by-election, providing him a path back to Parliament and eligibility to challenge for Labour leadership.

Angela Rayner cleared by HMRC, raising her profile as a leadership contender

Angela Rayner jumps to 15%5%

Angela Rayner was cleared of deliberate wrongdoing in a tax scandal, making her eligible to run for Labour leadership and briefly increasing her market prospects before her price declined as Burnham's momentum grew.

Andy Burnham announces candidacy for Makerfield by-election

Andy Burnham jumps to 25%11%

Andy Burnham declared his intention to contest the Makerfield by-election, aiming to re-enter Parliament and position himself to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence in Burnham's chances to become Prime Minister.

Angela Rayner Cleared by HMRC Over Tax Dispute as Wes Streeting Resigns

Angela Rayner jumps to 21%10%

HMRC cleared Angela Rayner of wrongdoing in her stamp duty dispute, clearing her path to challenge for leadership, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned to join the scramble for the top spot.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting Resigns and Calls for Leadership Contest

Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary citing lack of confidence in Starmer's leadership and announced intention to run for Labour leadership, signaling a serious challenge to Starmer and increasing market uncertainty about the next PM.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer

Wes Streeting resigned from his cabinet position, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Keir Starmer's leadership and calling for a leadership debate focused on ideas rather than personalities. This resignation intensified the leadership crisis and increased speculation about Starmer's potential departure.

Josh Simons resigns as MP to trigger Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham rises to 10%3%

Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow Andy Burnham to contest the Makerfield by-election, enabling Burnham to return to Parliament and become eligible to stand for Labour leadership, a key step in his bid to become Prime Minister.

Wes Streeting resigns as Health Secretary, calls for leadership contest

Wes Streeting drops to 14%5%

Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned citing lack of confidence in Keir Starmer's leadership, officially announcing his intention to run for Labour leadership. This increased pressure on Starmer and boosted speculation about leadership change, affecting market prices for challengers.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, increasing pressure on Starmer

Wes Streeting resigned from the government, criticizing Starmer and signaling a leadership challenge. This resignation intensified speculation about Starmer's imminent departure and boosted odds of a leadership contest.

UK PM Keir Starmer vows stronger performance amid calls for resignation

Following disastrous local election results for Labour, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced growing calls to resign but vowed to improve his performance and reaffirmed his commitment to key policies, temporarily stabilizing his position.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns amid Labour leadership crisis

Andy Burnham surges to 48%32%

Wes Streeting resigned from the government, criticizing Keir Starmer's leadership and increasing pressure for a leadership change. This event intensified speculation about Starmer's future and boosted prospects for leadership challengers like Andy Burnham.

Keir Starmer vows stronger performance amid growing calls for resignation

Following disastrous local election results for Labour, Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to improve his leadership and address public concerns, but faced increasing pressure to resign. This event marked the beginning of intensified scrutiny on Starmer's leadership, impacting market perceptions of his tenure.

Senior Labour ministers and MPs call for Keir Starmer to resign after local election losses

Following disastrous local election results in May 2026, over 70 Labour MPs and several cabinet ministers, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, publicly urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. This intensified speculation about Starmer's leadership and increased market expectations for a leadership change.

SNL UK airs satirical sketch featuring Nigel Farage as future Prime Minister

A comedy sketch on SNL UK portrayed Nigel Farage as Prime Minister in a dystopian future, reflecting public and media attention on Farage's political ambitions but not significantly affecting his market probability, which remained low.

Angela Rayner Declares Labour 'Isn't Working' and Backs Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham jumps to 29%9%

Former Deputy PM Angela Rayner released a statement criticizing Starmer's leadership and indicating she was backing Andy Burnham for the leadership, boosting Burnham's market odds.

Angela Rayner calls blocking Andy Burnham's return to Parliament a mistake

Andy Burnham rises to 22%2%

Angela Rayner publicly stated that blocking Andy Burnham's bid to return to Parliament was a mistake, signaling internal party support for Burnham and increasing his leadership prospects.

Thirty Labour MPs Call on Keir Starmer to Resign After Humiliating Local Election Losses

Andy Burnham jumps to 29%9%

Following disastrous local election results where Labour lost over 1,400 councillors, backbenchers and junior figures revolted, demanding Starmer step down and triggering a major leadership crisis.

Over 30 Labour MPs call on Keir Starmer to resign after election losses

Following disastrous local election results, more than 30 Labour MPs publicly demanded Keir Starmer resign as Prime Minister, reflecting deep internal party dissatisfaction and escalating the leadership crisis.

Labour suffers historic losses in local and regional elections to Reform UK and Greens

Labour's poor performance in the May 2026 local and regional elections, losing significant ground to Nigel Farage's Reform UK and the Green Party, intensified internal party dissatisfaction and weakened Keir Starmer's leadership position, setting the stage for leadership challenges.

Reform UK Makes Historic Gains in Local Elections, Undermining Labour Support

Nigel Farage drops to 1%6%

The far-right Reform UK party made significant gains in the May 2026 local elections, particularly in areas like Makerfield, weakening Labour's position and increasing pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, contributing to leadership instability.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood Resigns and Defects to Reform UK

Shabana Mahmood dips to 0%2%

Shabana Mahmood resigned as Home Secretary and defected to Reform UK, criticizing PM Starmer and Labour's policies. This unexpected move diminished her chances of becoming Prime Minister and caused her market price to drop sharply.

Shabana Mahmood rises as potential Labour successor amid Epstein scandal

Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%

Following the resignation of Keir Starmer's chief of staff over the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson linked to Jeffrey Epstein, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood emerged as a leading contender for Labour leadership, increasing speculation about Starmer's future and boosting Mahmood's market prospects.

Epstein scandal triggers Labour leadership speculation, boosting Shabana Mahmood

Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%

Following the resignation of Keir Starmer's chief of staff over the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson, Labour leadership speculation intensified. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood emerged as a leading contender, raising her profile and market interest amid the party's internal crisis.

Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar Calls on Keir Starmer to Resign

Anas Sarwar became the most senior Labour figure to call for Starmer's resignation following a crisis over Peter Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein, causing a febrile atmosphere and shifting leadership expectations.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Keir Starmer to resign

Anas Sarwar publicly called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, citing leadership distractions and mistakes undermining Labour's prospects ahead of the May elections. This was one of the first senior Labour figures to demand Starmer's departure, increasing pressure on his leadership.

Starmer’s Chief of Staff Resigns Over Mandelson Appointment Amid Epstein Scandal

Shabana Mahmood rises to 10%3%

Morgan McSweeney resigned after taking responsibility for appointing Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US, a decision criticized due to Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein. This scandal weakened Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position and intensified internal party pressure.