Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 83.5% for May as none of the market's triggering events—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country—have materialized through May 14. Ongoing 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations advanced with a 14-point proposal review by President Trump earlier this month, but ceasefire talks stalled amid threats of retaliation and no permanent agreement. Strait of Hormuz tensions drove oil price surges without reaching the threshold, while Russia-Ukraine strikes continued routinely without NATO escalation. With two weeks left, low odds reflect the unlikelihood of these specific black-swan developments amid de-escalation signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing
$83,617 Vol.
$83,617 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Nothing
$83,617 Vol.
$83,617 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 83.5% for May as none of the market's triggering events—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country—have materialized through May 14. Ongoing 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations advanced with a 14-point proposal review by President Trump earlier this month, but ceasefire talks stalled amid threats of retaliation and no permanent agreement. Strait of Hormuz tensions drove oil price surges without reaching the threshold, while Russia-Ukraine strikes continued routinely without NATO escalation. With two weeks left, low odds reflect the unlikelihood of these specific black-swan developments amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
ভলিউম
$83,617শেষ তারিখ
May 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 83.5% for May as none of the market's triggering events—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country—have materialized through May 14. Ongoing 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations advanced with a 14-point proposal review by President Trump earlier this month, but ceasefire talks stalled amid threats of retaliation and no permanent agreement. Strait of Hormuz tensions drove oil price surges without reaching the threshold, while Russia-Ukraine strikes continued routinely without NATO escalation. With two weeks left, low odds reflect the unlikelihood of these specific black-swan developments amid de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
ভলিউম
$83,617শেষ তারিখ
May 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 83.5% for May as none of the market's triggering events—a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iran leadership change, WTI crude oil surpassing $150 per barrel, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country—have materialized through May 14. Ongoing 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations advanced with a 14-point proposal review by President Trump earlier this month, but ceasefire talks stalled amid threats of retaliation and no permanent agreement. Strait of Hormuz tensions drove oil price surges without reaching the threshold, while Russia-Ukraine strikes continued routinely without NATO escalation. With two weeks left, low odds reflect the unlikelihood of these specific black-swan developments amid de-escalation signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা