**Ongoing geopolitical tensions, Iranian enforcement of transit controls, and repeated attacks have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted well below pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that flows will not normalize by year-end.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, visible daily transits hover in the single digits—roughly 6% of pre-disruption volumes—with the waterway described as physically open yet operating under “severely restricted” conditions due to security risks, mine hazards, GPS jamming, and selective access. Iran has asserted administrative authority via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, demanding permits, fees, and approved routes (primarily northern corridors under IRGC oversight), while enforcing compliance through warnings, turn-back orders, and kinetic actions. Recent developments include the August 17 seizure of the tanker *AMARA*, strikes on vessels such as *MINOAN DIGNITY* (resulting in a fatality), and multiple aborted transits by major operators, including Chinese fleets avoiding the area. These incidents followed the expiration of the June 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum, after which kinetic exchanges resumed and partial recovery attempts collapsed. War-risk insurance remains elevated, major carriers continue to divert, and a significant backlog of vessels persists inside the Gulf. These factors—persistent Iranian control efforts, credible threats to non-compliant shipping, and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement—have produced sustained low throughput and high uncertainty. With roughly four months remaining until December 31, the absence of verified progress toward pre-war traffic levels (typically over 70–130 vessels daily) underpins the current market pricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড30% সম্ভাবনা
$8,856,285 Vol.
$8,856,285 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
30% সম্ভাবনা
$8,856,285 Vol.
$8,856,285 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions, Iranian enforcement of transit controls, and repeated attacks have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted well below pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that flows will not normalize by year-end.**
As of mid-to-late August 2026, visible daily transits hover in the single digits—roughly 6% of pre-disruption volumes—with the waterway described as physically open yet operating under “severely restricted” conditions due to security risks, mine hazards, GPS jamming, and selective access. Iran has asserted administrative authority via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, demanding permits, fees, and approved routes (primarily northern corridors under IRGC oversight), while enforcing compliance through warnings, turn-back orders, and kinetic actions.
Recent developments include the August 17 seizure of the tanker *AMARA*, strikes on vessels such as *MINOAN DIGNITY* (resulting in a fatality), and multiple aborted transits by major operators, including Chinese fleets avoiding the area. These incidents followed the expiration of the June 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum, after which kinetic exchanges resumed and partial recovery attempts collapsed. War-risk insurance remains elevated, major carriers continue to divert, and a significant backlog of vessels persists inside the Gulf.
These factors—persistent Iranian control efforts, credible threats to non-compliant shipping, and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement—have produced sustained low throughput and high uncertainty. With roughly four months remaining until December 31, the absence of verified progress toward pre-war traffic levels (typically over 70–130 vessels daily) underpins the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
ভলিউম
$8,856,285শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions, Iranian enforcement of transit controls, and repeated attacks have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted well below pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that flows will not normalize by year-end.**
As of mid-to-late August 2026, visible daily transits hover in the single digits—roughly 6% of pre-disruption volumes—with the waterway described as physically open yet operating under “severely restricted” conditions due to security risks, mine hazards, GPS jamming, and selective access. Iran has asserted administrative authority via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, demanding permits, fees, and approved routes (primarily northern corridors under IRGC oversight), while enforcing compliance through warnings, turn-back orders, and kinetic actions.
Recent developments include the August 17 seizure of the tanker *AMARA*, strikes on vessels such as *MINOAN DIGNITY* (resulting in a fatality), and multiple aborted transits by major operators, including Chinese fleets avoiding the area. These incidents followed the expiration of the June 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum, after which kinetic exchanges resumed and partial recovery attempts collapsed. War-risk insurance remains elevated, major carriers continue to divert, and a significant backlog of vessels persists inside the Gulf.
These factors—persistent Iranian control efforts, credible threats to non-compliant shipping, and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement—have produced sustained low throughput and high uncertainty. With roughly four months remaining until December 31, the absence of verified progress toward pre-war traffic levels (typically over 70–130 vessels daily) underpins the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ভলিউম
$8,856,285শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions, Iranian enforcement of transit controls, and repeated attacks have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted well below pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that flows will not normalize by year-end.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, visible daily transits hover in the single digits—roughly 6% of pre-disruption volumes—with the waterway described as physically open yet operating under “severely restricted” conditions due to security risks, mine hazards, GPS jamming, and selective access. Iran has asserted administrative authority via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, demanding permits, fees, and approved routes (primarily northern corridors under IRGC oversight), while enforcing compliance through warnings, turn-back orders, and kinetic actions. Recent developments include the August 17 seizure of the tanker *AMARA*, strikes on vessels such as *MINOAN DIGNITY* (resulting in a fatality), and multiple aborted transits by major operators, including Chinese fleets avoiding the area. These incidents followed the expiration of the June 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum, after which kinetic exchanges resumed and partial recovery attempts collapsed. War-risk insurance remains elevated, major carriers continue to divert, and a significant backlog of vessels persists inside the Gulf. These factors—persistent Iranian control efforts, credible threats to non-compliant shipping, and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement—have produced sustained low throughput and high uncertainty. With roughly four months remaining until December 31, the absence of verified progress toward pre-war traffic levels (typically over 70–130 vessels daily) underpins the current market pricing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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