Typhoon Dolphin’s approach to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa in early August 2026 produced consistent model guidance and official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyses showing sustained winds in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–105 knots 10-minute average) at landfall. The system had earlier reached super-typhoon intensity but slowed and broadened while tracking northwest, limiting further intensification yet preserving the Very Strong classification through the critical window. JMA warnings explicitly labeled the storm “large and very strong” as it crossed the island chain, aligning with the near-certain market-implied odds. Only an unexpected sharp increase in vertical wind shear or premature land interaction could have dropped intensity below this threshold before arrival; neither materialized in the final forecast updates.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhat intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?
What intensity will Typhoon Dolphin have at landfall in Japan?
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$46,147 Vol.
$46,147 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
99%
Violent Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$46,147 Vol.
$46,147 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
Tropical Storm
$2,557 Vol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$4,214 Vol.
<1%
Typhoon
$15,213 Vol.
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
$9,943 Vol.
99%
Violent Typhoon
$6,817 Vol.
<1%
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin’s approach to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa in early August 2026 produced consistent model guidance and official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyses showing sustained winds in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–105 knots 10-minute average) at landfall. The system had earlier reached super-typhoon intensity but slowed and broadened while tracking northwest, limiting further intensification yet preserving the Very Strong classification through the critical window. JMA warnings explicitly labeled the storm “large and very strong” as it crossed the island chain, aligning with the near-certain market-implied odds. Only an unexpected sharp increase in vertical wind shear or premature land interaction could have dropped intensity below this threshold before arrival; neither materialized in the final forecast updates.
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$46,147শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin’s approach to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa in early August 2026 produced consistent model guidance and official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyses showing sustained winds in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–105 knots 10-minute average) at landfall. The system had earlier reached super-typhoon intensity but slowed and broadened while tracking northwest, limiting further intensification yet preserving the Very Strong classification through the critical window. JMA warnings explicitly labeled the storm “large and very strong” as it crossed the island chain, aligning with the near-certain market-implied odds. Only an unexpected sharp increase in vertical wind shear or premature land interaction could have dropped intensity below this threshold before arrival; neither materialized in the final forecast updates.
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."
This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
ভলিউম
$46,147শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Typhoon Dolphin’s approach to Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and Okinawa in early August 2026 produced consistent model guidance and official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) analyses showing sustained winds in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–105 knots 10-minute average) at landfall. The system had earlier reached super-typhoon intensity but slowed and broadened while tracking northwest, limiting further intensification yet preserving the Very Strong classification through the critical window. JMA warnings explicitly labeled the storm “large and very strong” as it crossed the island chain, aligning with the near-certain market-implied odds. Only an unexpected sharp increase in vertical wind shear or premature land interaction could have dropped intensity below this threshold before arrival; neither materialized in the final forecast updates.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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