United Russia maintains its commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive administrative resources, electronic voting systems, and a track record of strong performance in single-mandate districts. Preparations underway include electronic primaries that prioritize party loyalty and the nomination of hundreds of war veterans, alongside the first-time participation of voters from recently incorporated regions. While some VCIOM surveys show New People holding second place in national polling around 13 percent and drawing support from younger demographics, FOM data and structural constraints keep its prospects limited relative to United Russia. These factors align with the current implied probabilities favoring the established party over competitors such as the LDPR or KPRF.