France's ongoing political fragmentation, with a minority government and divided parliament, continues to hinder timely fiscal legislation, supporting the 69.5% market-implied probability against passage by year-end. Persistent polarization has repeatedly forced concessions or procedural maneuvers, as seen in the delayed 2026 budget that required multiple no-confidence votes and Socialist backing before adoption in early February. High public debt near 117% of GDP and a deficit around 5% of GDP amplify pressure for spending restraint, yet competing demands from left- and right-wing blocs complicate consensus. Key upcoming catalysts include autumn parliamentary sessions and any fresh economic data releases that could shift rate expectations or force negotiations, though historical precedent of extended deadlocks favors extended timelines over swift resolution. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers more than short-term optimism.