Recent border tensions, including a September landmine incident injuring South Korean soldiers, repeated North Korean military demarcation line crossings, fortification work, and multiple short-range ballistic missile launches in October, have prompted South Korean proposals for military talks that remain unanswered. These developments, alongside weapons tests and statements from Kim Yo Jong, reflect heightened posturing and capability demonstrations rather than mobilization for a full-scale invasion. Strong US-South Korea alliance coordination, joint exercises, and North Korea's focus on external partnerships sustain trader consensus at 98.6% for no invasion before 2027. Realistic shifts could stem from miscalculation during ongoing DMZ incidents, abrupt policy changes in Pyongyang or Washington, or rapid escalation of artillery deployments near the border.