The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026 reflects the stability of its underlying carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 and a consistent annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. The Mercator Research Institute model updates only with substantial new observational data or authoritative revisions, and Global Carbon Project monitoring plus 2026 stocktakes show emissions continuing near baseline without abrupt shifts that would reset the July 22, 2029 target by more than 30 days. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus update is scheduled before late 2026, supporting trader consensus on continuity. A sudden acceleration in mitigation or unforeseen revision in remaining budget estimates could still alter the published deadline.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
10% সম্ভাবনা
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% সম্ভাবনা
$13,265 Vol.
$13,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026 reflects the stability of its underlying carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 and a consistent annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. The Mercator Research Institute model updates only with substantial new observational data or authoritative revisions, and Global Carbon Project monitoring plus 2026 stocktakes show emissions continuing near baseline without abrupt shifts that would reset the July 22, 2029 target by more than 30 days. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus update is scheduled before late 2026, supporting trader consensus on continuity. A sudden acceleration in mitigation or unforeseen revision in remaining budget estimates could still alter the published deadline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
ভলিউম
$13,265শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://climateclock.worldরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026 reflects the stability of its underlying carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 and a consistent annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. The Mercator Research Institute model updates only with substantial new observational data or authoritative revisions, and Global Carbon Project monitoring plus 2026 stocktakes show emissions continuing near baseline without abrupt shifts that would reset the July 22, 2029 target by more than 30 days. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus update is scheduled before late 2026, supporting trader consensus on continuity. A sudden acceleration in mitigation or unforeseen revision in remaining budget estimates could still alter the published deadline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
ভলিউম
$13,265শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://climateclock.worldরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026 reflects the stability of its underlying carbon budget calculation, anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 and a consistent annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. The Mercator Research Institute model updates only with substantial new observational data or authoritative revisions, and Global Carbon Project monitoring plus 2026 stocktakes show emissions continuing near baseline without abrupt shifts that would reset the July 22, 2029 target by more than 30 days. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus update is scheduled before late 2026, supporting trader consensus on continuity. A sudden acceleration in mitigation or unforeseen revision in remaining budget estimates could still alter the published deadline.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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