Recent Houthi territorial gains, including control of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab as of early September 2026, have driven a sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic, with daily crossings falling to as low as 15 from prior levels near 30 and tanker transits averaging around 3 per day on recent readings. Shipping lines continue selective transits—particularly non-Saudi-linked or cleared vessels—while many reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost amid elevated risk premiums. Brent crude has traded near $104–110 per barrel as related disruptions compound pressure on alternative routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent but reduced volumes reflect trader views that complete daily shutdown remains unlikely absent further escalation, with upcoming conflict developments and data releases on transit counts serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0 Schiffe passieren Bab el-Mandeb zu einem beliebigen Zeitpunkt bis zum...?
0 Schiffe passieren Bab el-Mandeb zu einem beliebigen Zeitpunkt bis zum...?
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
7%
31. Dezember
34%
$49 Vol.
30. September
$47 Vol.
7%
31. Dezember
$2 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including control of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab as of early September 2026, have driven a sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic, with daily crossings falling to as low as 15 from prior levels near 30 and tanker transits averaging around 3 per day on recent readings. Shipping lines continue selective transits—particularly non-Saudi-linked or cleared vessels—while many reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost amid elevated risk premiums. Brent crude has traded near $104–110 per barrel as related disruptions compound pressure on alternative routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent but reduced volumes reflect trader views that complete daily shutdown remains unlikely absent further escalation, with upcoming conflict developments and data releases on transit counts serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$49Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including control of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab as of early September 2026, have driven a sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic, with daily crossings falling to as low as 15 from prior levels near 30 and tanker transits averaging around 3 per day on recent readings. Shipping lines continue selective transits—particularly non-Saudi-linked or cleared vessels—while many reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost amid elevated risk premiums. Brent crude has traded near $104–110 per barrel as related disruptions compound pressure on alternative routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent but reduced volumes reflect trader views that complete daily shutdown remains unlikely absent further escalation, with upcoming conflict developments and data releases on transit counts serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$49Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial gains, including control of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab as of early September 2026, have driven a sharp contraction in Bab el-Mandeb traffic, with daily crossings falling to as low as 15 from prior levels near 30 and tanker transits averaging around 3 per day on recent readings. Shipping lines continue selective transits—particularly non-Saudi-linked or cleared vessels—while many reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost amid elevated risk premiums. Brent crude has traded near $104–110 per barrel as related disruptions compound pressure on alternative routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent but reduced volumes reflect trader views that complete daily shutdown remains unlikely absent further escalation, with upcoming conflict developments and data releases on transit counts serving as key near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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