Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiertclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
Andere <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 Vol.
$191,202 Vol.
13. Juni 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Ja
claude-opus-4-6
Nein
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
Nein
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Nein
gemini-3.5-flash
Nein
Andere
Nein
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
Andere <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 Vol.
$191,202 Vol.
13. Juni 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$80,989 Vol.
Ja
claude-opus-4-6
$13,439 Vol.
Nein
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$8,352 Vol.
Nein
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$6,121 Vol.
Nein
gemini-3.5-flash
$2,345 Vol.
Nein
Andere
$79,956 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volumen
$191,202Enddatum
13. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$191,202Enddatum
13. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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