Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in any presidential runoff due to consistent polling advantages of 10–20 points over Flávio Bolsonaro across multiple September surveys, including leads of 53–38% and 58–36% in second-round simulations. The state’s Northeast location reinforces this edge, as the region has long delivered strong support for the PT candidate amid higher government approval ratings near 58%. Historical patterns from 2022, when Lula secured roughly 59% of valid votes statewide, further anchor trader consensus. Flávio’s relatively stronger performance here compared to other Northeastern states has not closed the gap, with rejection rates for him reaching 56%. While turnout shifts or unexpected national developments could narrow margins, current evidence points to durable structural and preference-based advantages for Lula.