Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, reflecting entrenched procedural requirements including a two-thirds vote threshold and limited standing for complaints. Recent rulings, such as Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 decision narrowing initiation primarily to the Prosecutor-General while pausing elements of the 1950 statute, have added further barriers that Senate leadership has upheld. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration reinforce this shield, sustaining trader consensus around the 96.6% implied probability for no removal before 2027. A post-2026 election Senate realignment or major institutional rupture could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability developments in the near term.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, reflecting entrenched procedural requirements including a two-thirds vote threshold and limited standing for complaints. Recent rulings, such as Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 decision narrowing initiation primarily to the Prosecutor-General while pausing elements of the 1950 statute, have added further barriers that Senate leadership has upheld. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration reinforce this shield, sustaining trader consensus around the 96.6% implied probability for no removal before 2027. A post-2026 election Senate realignment or major institutional rupture could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability developments in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, reflecting entrenched procedural requirements including a two-thirds vote threshold and limited standing for complaints. Recent rulings, such as Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 decision narrowing initiation primarily to the Prosecutor-General while pausing elements of the 1950 statute, have added further barriers that Senate leadership has upheld. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration reinforce this shield, sustaining trader consensus around the 96.6% implied probability for no removal before 2027. A post-2026 election Senate realignment or major institutional rupture could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability developments in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, reflecting entrenched procedural requirements including a two-thirds vote threshold and limited standing for complaints. Recent rulings, such as Justice Gilmar Mendes's December 2025 decision narrowing initiation primarily to the Prosecutor-General while pausing elements of the 1950 statute, have added further barriers that Senate leadership has upheld. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration reinforce this shield, sustaining trader consensus around the 96.6% implied probability for no removal before 2027. A post-2026 election Senate realignment or major institutional rupture could still open pathways, though both remain low-probability developments in the near term.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
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