Brazil’s Senate has never impeached and removed an STF justice despite numerous petitions, including recent ones targeting Alexandre de Moraes and others. Procedural requirements demand a two-thirds Senate vote, while Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further restricted standing for such proceedings, later partially adjusted, creating additional institutional barriers. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration continue to shield the court ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders view these structural and political factors as making any removal before 2027 highly improbable. A major unforeseen institutional crisis or abrupt Senate realignment could still alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never impeached and removed an STF justice despite numerous petitions, including recent ones targeting Alexandre de Moraes and others. Procedural requirements demand a two-thirds Senate vote, while Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further restricted standing for such proceedings, later partially adjusted, creating additional institutional barriers. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration continue to shield the court ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders view these structural and political factors as making any removal before 2027 highly improbable. A major unforeseen institutional crisis or abrupt Senate realignment could still alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never impeached and removed an STF justice despite numerous petitions, including recent ones targeting Alexandre de Moraes and others. Procedural requirements demand a two-thirds Senate vote, while Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further restricted standing for such proceedings, later partially adjusted, creating additional institutional barriers. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration continue to shield the court ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders view these structural and political factors as making any removal before 2027 highly improbable. A major unforeseen institutional crisis or abrupt Senate realignment could still alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$83,546Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never impeached and removed an STF justice despite numerous petitions, including recent ones targeting Alexandre de Moraes and others. Procedural requirements demand a two-thirds Senate vote, while Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes further restricted standing for such proceedings, later partially adjusted, creating additional institutional barriers. Current congressional majorities aligned with the Lula administration continue to shield the court ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders view these structural and political factors as making any removal before 2027 highly improbable. A major unforeseen institutional crisis or abrupt Senate realignment could still alter the trajectory in the remaining months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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