China’s official growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, announced during the National People’s Congress, combined with stronger-than-expected first-quarter expansion of 5 percent year-over-year, has anchored trader expectations around the 4–6 percent range. Robust export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove the Q1 rebound, while easing property-sector drag and resilient industrial output have sustained momentum into the spring. Forecasters including the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard project full-year outcomes between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting these near-term positives offset by subdued domestic consumption, lingering deflationary pressures, and risks from higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments. The narrow gap between the leading 4–5 percent and 5–6 percent brackets illustrates uncertainty over whether stimulus and external demand can sustain above-target growth through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 66%
5,0–6,0 % 34.3%
3,0–4,0 % 1.3%
6,0-7,0 % 1.0%
$589,956 Vol.
$589,956 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
66%
5,0–6,0 %
34%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
<1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 66%
5,0–6,0 % 34.3%
3,0–4,0 % 1.3%
6,0-7,0 % 1.0%
$589,956 Vol.
$589,956 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
$46,113 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$45,252 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$25,532 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$48,359 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$140,065 Vol.
66%
5,0–6,0 %
$59,841 Vol.
34%
6,0-7,0 %
$52,999 Vol.
1%
7,0–8,0 %
$57,005 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$25,925 Vol.
<1%
9,0 %+
$88,862 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, announced during the National People’s Congress, combined with stronger-than-expected first-quarter expansion of 5 percent year-over-year, has anchored trader expectations around the 4–6 percent range. Robust export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove the Q1 rebound, while easing property-sector drag and resilient industrial output have sustained momentum into the spring. Forecasters including the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard project full-year outcomes between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting these near-term positives offset by subdued domestic consumption, lingering deflationary pressures, and risks from higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments. The narrow gap between the leading 4–5 percent and 5–6 percent brackets illustrates uncertainty over whether stimulus and external demand can sustain above-target growth through year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$589,956Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, announced during the National People’s Congress, combined with stronger-than-expected first-quarter expansion of 5 percent year-over-year, has anchored trader expectations around the 4–6 percent range. Robust export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove the Q1 rebound, while easing property-sector drag and resilient industrial output have sustained momentum into the spring. Forecasters including the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard project full-year outcomes between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting these near-term positives offset by subdued domestic consumption, lingering deflationary pressures, and risks from higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments. The narrow gap between the leading 4–5 percent and 5–6 percent brackets illustrates uncertainty over whether stimulus and external demand can sustain above-target growth through year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$589,956Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, announced during the National People’s Congress, combined with stronger-than-expected first-quarter expansion of 5 percent year-over-year, has anchored trader expectations around the 4–6 percent range. Robust export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove the Q1 rebound, while easing property-sector drag and resilient industrial output have sustained momentum into the spring. Forecasters including the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and Vanguard project full-year outcomes between 4.4 and 4.8 percent, reflecting these near-term positives offset by subdued domestic consumption, lingering deflationary pressures, and risks from higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments. The narrow gap between the leading 4–5 percent and 5–6 percent brackets illustrates uncertainty over whether stimulus and external demand can sustain above-target growth through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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