Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. These prints, combined with the Fed’s July hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, have produced the current 71.5% market-implied probability of no change. Forward-looking pricing also reflects the September 4 employment report and September 11 CPI release as key swing factors before the October decision, with any further moderation in inflation or softening in payrolls likely to reinforce the no-move consensus while hotter readings could lift the 23.5% odds of a modest tightening.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Fed-Entscheidung im Oktober?
Keine Änderung 72%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 24%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.6%
$643,913 Vol.
$643,913 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
2%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Keine Änderung
72%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 72%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 24%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 4.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 1.6%
$643,913 Vol.
$643,913 Vol.
28. Okt. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$125,593 Vol.
2%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$187,912 Vol.
4%
Keine Änderung
$139,170 Vol.
72%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$134,344 Vol.
24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$56,894 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. These prints, combined with the Fed’s July hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, have produced the current 71.5% market-implied probability of no change. Forward-looking pricing also reflects the September 4 employment report and September 11 CPI release as key swing factors before the October decision, with any further moderation in inflation or softening in payrolls likely to reinforce the no-move consensus while hotter readings could lift the 23.5% odds of a modest tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volumen
$643,913Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. These prints, combined with the Fed’s July hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, have produced the current 71.5% market-implied probability of no change. Forward-looking pricing also reflects the September 4 employment report and September 11 CPI release as key swing factors before the October decision, with any further moderation in inflation or softening in payrolls likely to reinforce the no-move consensus while hotter readings could lift the 23.5% odds of a modest tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$643,913Enddatum
28. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation and labor data have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. These prints, combined with the Fed’s July hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, have produced the current 71.5% market-implied probability of no change. Forward-looking pricing also reflects the September 4 employment report and September 11 CPI release as key swing factors before the October decision, with any further moderation in inflation or softening in payrolls likely to reinforce the no-move consensus while hotter readings could lift the 23.5% odds of a modest tightening.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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