Hawaii's 1st congressional district, centered on Honolulu, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Partisan Voter Index around D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary with 60% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan margins, Case's established record, and limited Republican infrastructure in the state. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. An upset would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment capable of overcoming the district's baseline voting patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHI-01 Wahlsieger
HI-01 Wahlsieger
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$35,259 Vol.
$35,259 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$14,953 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$20,305 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district, centered on Honolulu, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Partisan Voter Index around D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary with 60% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan margins, Case's established record, and limited Republican infrastructure in the state. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. An upset would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment capable of overcoming the district's baseline voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$35,259Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district, centered on Honolulu, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Partisan Voter Index around D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary with 60% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan margins, Case's established record, and limited Republican infrastructure in the state. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. An upset would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment capable of overcoming the district's baseline voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,259Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district, centered on Honolulu, maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Partisan Voter Index around D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8, 2026 primary with 60% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan margins, Case's established record, and limited Republican infrastructure in the state. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments that would alter the competitive landscape. An upset would require a major unforeseen event such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unprecedented national partisan realignment capable of overcoming the district's baseline voting patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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