Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models point to a peak temperature in Busan on August 23 near 31–34 °C, driven by lingering summer high pressure, light southeasterly winds, and mostly sunny skies that limit daytime cooling. Above-average August warmth, with recent daily maxima of 32–33 °C, supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (54.5 % implied probability). Model spread and micro-scale urban heating introduce modest uncertainty around exact hourly peaks, while low precipitation chances reduce evaporative cooling. Traders appear to price in the upper end of the official 30–34 °C range, consistent with observed heat persistence into the Cheoseo period and limited cooling expected overnight. Updated KMA guidance and final observational data will determine resolution.