Forecasts from MetService and international models for Wellington on August 24 point to daytime highs of 14–15°C under typical late-winter southerly or northwesterly flows, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward those outcomes. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 12–13°C and limited warming from recent high-pressure influences. Model consensus shows modest variability from passing fronts, which could push the daily peak slightly higher if clearer skies develop or suppress it under increased cloud and wind. Traders appear to discount extremes given the narrow range of ensemble guidance and the absence of significant atmospheric blocking. Updated model runs ahead of the 24th will refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 24. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 24. August?
15°C 54%
14°C 35%
16°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEU
NEU
24. Aug. 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
28%
15°C
54%
16°C
19%
17°C
5%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 54%
14°C 35%
16°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEU
NEU
24. Aug. 2026
9°C or below
$32 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$99 Vol.
3%
14°C
$173 Vol.
28%
15°C
$118 Vol.
54%
16°C
$188 Vol.
19%
17°C
$99 Vol.
5%
18°C
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from MetService and international models for Wellington on August 24 point to daytime highs of 14–15°C under typical late-winter southerly or northwesterly flows, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward those outcomes. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 12–13°C and limited warming from recent high-pressure influences. Model consensus shows modest variability from passing fronts, which could push the daily peak slightly higher if clearer skies develop or suppress it under increased cloud and wind. Traders appear to discount extremes given the narrow range of ensemble guidance and the absence of significant atmospheric blocking. Updated model runs ahead of the 24th will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$947Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from MetService and international models for Wellington on August 24 point to daytime highs of 14–15°C under typical late-winter southerly or northwesterly flows, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward those outcomes. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 12–13°C and limited warming from recent high-pressure influences. Model consensus shows modest variability from passing fronts, which could push the daily peak slightly higher if clearer skies develop or suppress it under increased cloud and wind. Traders appear to discount extremes given the narrow range of ensemble guidance and the absence of significant atmospheric blocking. Updated model runs ahead of the 24th will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$947Enddatum
24. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from MetService and international models for Wellington on August 24 point to daytime highs of 14–15°C under typical late-winter southerly or northwesterly flows, aligning with the market's strong weighting toward those outcomes. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region, consistent with historical August maxima of 12–13°C and limited warming from recent high-pressure influences. Model consensus shows modest variability from passing fronts, which could push the daily peak slightly higher if clearer skies develop or suppress it under increased cloud and wind. Traders appear to discount extremes given the narrow range of ensemble guidance and the absence of significant atmospheric blocking. Updated model runs ahead of the 24th will refine these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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