Current short-range guidance from European ensemble models and Météo-France places the expected minimum temperature in central Paris on August 24 near the late-summer climatological average of 14–15 °C, with overnight radiative cooling limited by increasing cloud cover and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities across the 13–15 °C outcomes, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty two days ahead. Recent model runs show little signal for stronger nocturnal cooling that would favor 12 °C or below, while warmer solutions remain possible if clearing skies develop. Traders are therefore weighting the tightly bunched central outcomes most heavily, consistent with the narrow historical distribution of Paris minima at this time of year.