The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on August 14, 2026, stems from official Hong Kong Observatory verification of a daily maximum exactly matching that threshold. Light southerly monsoon flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—consistent with typical South China Sea conditions in mid-August—limited daytime heating and aligned with ensemble model consensus issued in the days prior. Historical climatology places August averages near 29–31°C at the headquarters station, providing a narrow band that traders correctly anticipated would contain the outcome. Only an unprecedented data revision or resolution based on an alternate station could shift the result, both of which remain statistically remote given the HKO’s standardized measurement protocols.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 14. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 14. August?
30°C 99.9%
29°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
$237,240 Vol.
$237,240 Vol.
14. Aug. 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 99.9%
29°C <1%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
$237,240 Vol.
$237,240 Vol.
14. Aug. 2026
26°C or below
$4,300 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,516 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$47,640 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$52,808 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$48,586 Vol.
100%
31°C
$32,501 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$19,039 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$9,126 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$7,686 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,460 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,578 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on August 14, 2026, stems from official Hong Kong Observatory verification of a daily maximum exactly matching that threshold. Light southerly monsoon flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—consistent with typical South China Sea conditions in mid-August—limited daytime heating and aligned with ensemble model consensus issued in the days prior. Historical climatology places August averages near 29–31°C at the headquarters station, providing a narrow band that traders correctly anticipated would contain the outcome. Only an unprecedented data revision or resolution based on an alternate station could shift the result, both of which remain statistically remote given the HKO’s standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$237,240Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on August 14, 2026, stems from official Hong Kong Observatory verification of a daily maximum exactly matching that threshold. Light southerly monsoon flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—consistent with typical South China Sea conditions in mid-August—limited daytime heating and aligned with ensemble model consensus issued in the days prior. Historical climatology places August averages near 29–31°C at the headquarters station, providing a narrow band that traders correctly anticipated would contain the outcome. Only an unprecedented data revision or resolution based on an alternate station could shift the result, both of which remain statistically remote given the HKO’s standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$237,240Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on August 14, 2026, stems from official Hong Kong Observatory verification of a daily maximum exactly matching that threshold. Light southerly monsoon flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—consistent with typical South China Sea conditions in mid-August—limited daytime heating and aligned with ensemble model consensus issued in the days prior. Historical climatology places August averages near 29–31°C at the headquarters station, providing a narrow band that traders correctly anticipated would contain the outcome. Only an unprecedented data revision or resolution based on an alternate station could shift the result, both of which remain statistically remote given the HKO’s standardized measurement protocols.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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