Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 16, driven by warm southerly advection ahead of an approaching Atlantic front and initially limited cloud cover. Afternoon convective showers, noted in several guidance runs, introduce downward uncertainty that caps the upper tail of probabilities and keeps 31°C+ outcomes below 10%. Ensemble spread remains modest but centers on the 28–30°C range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daytime highs average 23–25°C yet can exceed 30°C under favorable ridge conditions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C, reflecting both the most likely outcomes and the narrow window before resolution on official Polish meteorological observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. August?
29°C 33%
30°C 26%
28°C 24%
31°C 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
24%
29°C
33%
30°C
26%
31°C
8%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 33%
30°C 26%
28°C 24%
31°C 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
$86 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$93 Vol.
1%
26°C
$211 Vol.
2%
27°C
$320 Vol.
6%
28°C
$39 Vol.
24%
29°C
$170 Vol.
33%
30°C
$653 Vol.
26%
31°C
$543 Vol.
8%
32°C
$827 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 16, driven by warm southerly advection ahead of an approaching Atlantic front and initially limited cloud cover. Afternoon convective showers, noted in several guidance runs, introduce downward uncertainty that caps the upper tail of probabilities and keeps 31°C+ outcomes below 10%. Ensemble spread remains modest but centers on the 28–30°C range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daytime highs average 23–25°C yet can exceed 30°C under favorable ridge conditions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C, reflecting both the most likely outcomes and the narrow window before resolution on official Polish meteorological observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$3,407Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 16, driven by warm southerly advection ahead of an approaching Atlantic front and initially limited cloud cover. Afternoon convective showers, noted in several guidance runs, introduce downward uncertainty that caps the upper tail of probabilities and keeps 31°C+ outcomes below 10%. Ensemble spread remains modest but centers on the 28–30°C range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daytime highs average 23–25°C yet can exceed 30°C under favorable ridge conditions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C, reflecting both the most likely outcomes and the narrow window before resolution on official Polish meteorological observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,407Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 16, driven by warm southerly advection ahead of an approaching Atlantic front and initially limited cloud cover. Afternoon convective showers, noted in several guidance runs, introduce downward uncertainty that caps the upper tail of probabilities and keeps 31°C+ outcomes below 10%. Ensemble spread remains modest but centers on the 28–30°C range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daytime highs average 23–25°C yet can exceed 30°C under favorable ridge conditions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C, reflecting both the most likely outcomes and the narrow window before resolution on official Polish meteorological observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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