Recent forecast guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicates daytime highs near 26°C for Istanbul on August 14, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability. Seasonal cooling typical of late August—following peak early-month averages around 28–29°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northeasterly flow supports this range, with limited model spread favoring 25–27°C outcomes. Current observations show highs fluctuating 24–31°C amid normal humidity, without heatwave signals or strong southerly advection that could push temperatures higher. Traders appear to weigh these climatological baselines and short-range model consensus heavily, as resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Istanbul’s primary stations. Updated model runs expected within 48 hours could refine probabilities before market close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 14. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 14. August?
26°C 52%
25°C 31%
27°C 29%
28°C 19%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
23°C oder darunter
2%
24°C
18%
25°C
31%
26°C
52%
27°C
29%
28°C
19%
29°C
4%
30°C
3%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C oder höher
<1%
26°C 52%
25°C 31%
27°C 29%
28°C 19%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
23°C oder darunter
$12 Vol.
2%
24°C
$22 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C
$12 Vol.
52%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
19%
29°C
$5 Vol.
4%
30°C
$12 Vol.
3%
31°C
$12 Vol.
7%
32°C
$12 Vol.
2%
33°C oder höher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicates daytime highs near 26°C for Istanbul on August 14, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability. Seasonal cooling typical of late August—following peak early-month averages around 28–29°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northeasterly flow supports this range, with limited model spread favoring 25–27°C outcomes. Current observations show highs fluctuating 24–31°C amid normal humidity, without heatwave signals or strong southerly advection that could push temperatures higher. Traders appear to weigh these climatological baselines and short-range model consensus heavily, as resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Istanbul’s primary stations. Updated model runs expected within 48 hours could refine probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$99Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicates daytime highs near 26°C for Istanbul on August 14, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability. Seasonal cooling typical of late August—following peak early-month averages around 28–29°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northeasterly flow supports this range, with limited model spread favoring 25–27°C outcomes. Current observations show highs fluctuating 24–31°C amid normal humidity, without heatwave signals or strong southerly advection that could push temperatures higher. Traders appear to weigh these climatological baselines and short-range model consensus heavily, as resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Istanbul’s primary stations. Updated model runs expected within 48 hours could refine probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$99Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and the UK Met Office indicates daytime highs near 26°C for Istanbul on August 14, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability. Seasonal cooling typical of late August—following peak early-month averages around 28–29°C—combined with stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northeasterly flow supports this range, with limited model spread favoring 25–27°C outcomes. Current observations show highs fluctuating 24–31°C amid normal humidity, without heatwave signals or strong southerly advection that could push temperatures higher. Traders appear to weigh these climatological baselines and short-range model consensus heavily, as resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at Istanbul’s primary stations. Updated model runs expected within 48 hours could refine probabilities before market close.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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