Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system with northeasterly winds and mostly sunny conditions will deliver a daytime maximum near 28–29°C in Istanbul on August 12, aligning with the market's leading 54.5% implied probability for 28°C. Climatological baselines for mid-August average 27–28°C, and recent ensemble runs show limited variability from typical summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Shorter-range guidance places only modest upside risk for 30°C or higher if winds weaken, while cooler outcomes below 27°C appear unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 12. August?
28°C 56%
29°C 27%
27°C 22%
30°C 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C
22%
28°C
56%
29°C
22%
30°C
9%
31°C
4%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 56%
29°C 27%
27°C 22%
30°C 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$12 Vol.
6%
26°C
$6 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1 Vol.
22%
28°C
$369 Vol.
56%
29°C
$5 Vol.
22%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C
$7 Vol.
4%
32°C
$12 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system with northeasterly winds and mostly sunny conditions will deliver a daytime maximum near 28–29°C in Istanbul on August 12, aligning with the market's leading 54.5% implied probability for 28°C. Climatological baselines for mid-August average 27–28°C, and recent ensemble runs show limited variability from typical summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Shorter-range guidance places only modest upside risk for 30°C or higher if winds weaken, while cooler outcomes below 27°C appear unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$449Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system with northeasterly winds and mostly sunny conditions will deliver a daytime maximum near 28–29°C in Istanbul on August 12, aligning with the market's leading 54.5% implied probability for 28°C. Climatological baselines for mid-August average 27–28°C, and recent ensemble runs show limited variability from typical summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Shorter-range guidance places only modest upside risk for 30°C or higher if winds weaken, while cooler outcomes below 27°C appear unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$449Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate a high-pressure system with northeasterly winds and mostly sunny conditions will deliver a daytime maximum near 28–29°C in Istanbul on August 12, aligning with the market's leading 54.5% implied probability for 28°C. Climatological baselines for mid-August average 27–28°C, and recent ensemble runs show limited variability from typical summer subsidence and minimal cloud cover or precipitation. Shorter-range guidance places only modest upside risk for 30°C or higher if winds weaken, while cooler outcomes below 27°C appear unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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