High pressure dominance across southern England, reinforced by recent Met Office and ECMWF model runs, is driving the current market focus on 17–18°C as the most probable minimum temperature for London on August 12. Persistent warm air advection and reduced cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-to-high teens rather than the seasonal 13–14°C average. Clear skies and light winds under this pattern favor the higher end of the distribution, though small shifts in timing or local urban heat island effects could trim the minimum by a degree. Short-range forecast updates through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in London am 12. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in London am 12. August?
18°C 38%
17°C 31%
16°C 15%
19°C 8%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C
8%
16°C
15%
17°C
31%
18°C
35%
19°C
8%
20°C
5%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 38%
17°C 31%
16°C 15%
19°C 8%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
12°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
13°C
$12 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$70 Vol.
31%
18°C
$8 Vol.
35%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$11 Vol.
5%
21°C
$13 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High pressure dominance across southern England, reinforced by recent Met Office and ECMWF model runs, is driving the current market focus on 17–18°C as the most probable minimum temperature for London on August 12. Persistent warm air advection and reduced cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-to-high teens rather than the seasonal 13–14°C average. Clear skies and light winds under this pattern favor the higher end of the distribution, though small shifts in timing or local urban heat island effects could trim the minimum by a degree. Short-range forecast updates through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$138Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High pressure dominance across southern England, reinforced by recent Met Office and ECMWF model runs, is driving the current market focus on 17–18°C as the most probable minimum temperature for London on August 12. Persistent warm air advection and reduced cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-to-high teens rather than the seasonal 13–14°C average. Clear skies and light winds under this pattern favor the higher end of the distribution, though small shifts in timing or local urban heat island effects could trim the minimum by a degree. Short-range forecast updates through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$138Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...High pressure dominance across southern England, reinforced by recent Met Office and ECMWF model runs, is driving the current market focus on 17–18°C as the most probable minimum temperature for London on August 12. Persistent warm air advection and reduced cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-to-high teens rather than the seasonal 13–14°C average. Clear skies and light winds under this pattern favor the higher end of the distribution, though small shifts in timing or local urban heat island effects could trim the minimum by a degree. Short-range forecast updates through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen