**Recent Met Office forecasts indicate a minimum nighttime temperature of around 17°C for London on Monday, August 10, 2026, amid a warm, mostly sunny high-pressure pattern.** Daytime highs are expected near 28°C, with overnight cooling limited by clear skies and light winds that allow radiational cooling but keep values well above seasonal averages for early August. Key drivers of trader sentiment include the current warm spell across southern England, with recent nights showing minima in the mid-teens Celsius, and model consensus favoring continued settled conditions without significant cool air advection. Historical climatology for early August in London shows average overnight lows near 14–15°C, so the present setup supports elevated minima unless a sharper overnight radiative drop occurs under clearer, calmer conditions than currently modeled. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 18–19°C (collectively over 60%), reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight cooling rates and potential minor forecast adjustments from the Met Office or ECMWF runs ahead of the date. Lower outcomes (16°C or below) carry reduced weight given the lack of incoming fronts or cloud cover that would suppress temperatures further. Upcoming model updates and any shifts in high-pressure positioning remain the primary near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.