Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and European ensembles indicate a maximum of 17–18 °C in Moscow on August 12, 2026, under increasing cloud cover and light northeasterly flow associated with a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup limits insolation and caps daytime heating several degrees below mid-August climatological normals near 22–24 °C. Trader positioning reflects this consensus, with implied probabilities concentrated on 17–19 °C, while lower or higher outcomes remain low-probability tails pending any final model runs or observational adjustments from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Moskau am 12. August?
18°C 42%
17°C 28%
19°C 19%
16°C 8%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
28%
18°C
42%
19°C
19%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 42%
17°C 28%
19°C 19%
16°C 8%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
28%
18°C
42%
19°C
19%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and European ensembles indicate a maximum of 17–18 °C in Moscow on August 12, 2026, under increasing cloud cover and light northeasterly flow associated with a weakening high-pressure ridge. This setup limits insolation and caps daytime heating several degrees below mid-August climatological normals near 22–24 °C. Trader positioning reflects this consensus, with implied probabilities concentrated on 17–19 °C, while lower or higher outcomes remain low-probability tails pending any final model runs or observational adjustments from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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