Current forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration project a daily maximum temperature in Shenzhen on August 10 near 35°C, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes at 36°C (37.5%) and 35°C (25.5%). Subtropical summer conditions—high humidity, weak steering flows, and afternoon convection—support afternoon peaks in the mid-30s, with recent observational trends and numerical runs aligning here after August 7–9 highs reached 35–36°C. Thunderstorm chances noted in some guidance could moderate temperatures toward 33–34°C, while model spread and urban heat effects leave room for a 37°C outlier. Updated model consensus and official observations closer to the date remain the key variables for traders.