Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum temperature on August 14 near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for that outcome. Seasonal norms for mid-August feature typical overnight lows of 24–26°C under persistent high pressure, with recent model runs showing limited cooling from variable cloud cover and light winds rather than a stronger frontal passage. The 23°C and 25°C bins (28.5% and 16.0% implied odds) reflect remaining uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where small shifts in humidity or urban heat-island effects could adjust the reading by 1°C. Short-range updates expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 14. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Tokio am 14. August?
24°C 50%
23°C 29%
25°C 16%
22°C 5%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
19°C oder darunter
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
29%
24°C
50%
25°C
16%
26°C
3%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C oder höher
<1%
24°C 50%
23°C 29%
25°C 16%
22°C 5%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
19°C oder darunter
$57 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$58 Vol.
1%
21°C
$73 Vol.
2%
22°C
$55 Vol.
5%
23°C
$280 Vol.
29%
24°C
$184 Vol.
50%
25°C
$472 Vol.
16%
26°C
$87 Vol.
3%
27°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
29°C oder höher
$314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum temperature on August 14 near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for that outcome. Seasonal norms for mid-August feature typical overnight lows of 24–26°C under persistent high pressure, with recent model runs showing limited cooling from variable cloud cover and light winds rather than a stronger frontal passage. The 23°C and 25°C bins (28.5% and 16.0% implied odds) reflect remaining uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where small shifts in humidity or urban heat-island effects could adjust the reading by 1°C. Short-range updates expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$1,781Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum temperature on August 14 near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for that outcome. Seasonal norms for mid-August feature typical overnight lows of 24–26°C under persistent high pressure, with recent model runs showing limited cooling from variable cloud cover and light winds rather than a stronger frontal passage. The 23°C and 25°C bins (28.5% and 16.0% implied odds) reflect remaining uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where small shifts in humidity or urban heat-island effects could adjust the reading by 1°C. Short-range updates expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,781Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current meteorological forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a Tokyo minimum temperature on August 14 near 24°C, aligning with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for that outcome. Seasonal norms for mid-August feature typical overnight lows of 24–26°C under persistent high pressure, with recent model runs showing limited cooling from variable cloud cover and light winds rather than a stronger frontal passage. The 23°C and 25°C bins (28.5% and 16.0% implied odds) reflect remaining uncertainty in ensemble guidance, where small shifts in humidity or urban heat-island effects could adjust the reading by 1°C. Short-range updates expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the daily minimum observation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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