Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Central Park show overnight lows near 70–73°F on August 14, aligning with the market’s tightest probabilities around 72–73°F and 74–75°F. Primary drivers include persistent high dew points and humidity that limit radiative cooling, variable cloud cover from lingering moisture, and light southerly to westerly winds that reduce boundary-layer mixing. Model runs differ on the exact timing of any clearing or weak frontal influence, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. These conditions contrast with August climatological normals near 69°F and reflect the current warm, muggy regime without strong cold advection. Updated short-range model guidance and evening observations will refine the final reading before resolution.